A congressional special election in Tennessee is shaping up to be a pivotal battleground for both Democrats and Republicans as they aim to establish a compelling narrative ahead of the upcoming 2026 midterms. The state's 7th Congressional District has traditionally leaned conservative, evidenced by President Trump's impressive 60% vote share in the November elections. Former Representative Mark Green, who resigned in July, secured victory with a similar margin. However, recent trends indicate that Democrats have significantly outperformed expectations in special elections this year, averaging a 13% advantage over their projected 2024 margins.
The current contest between Republican Matt Van Epps, a former state Department of General Services Commissioner, and Democratic state Representative Aftyn Behn has garnered national attention, especially in the final weeks of the campaign. The high stakes of this race come at a time when both parties are eager to maximize their voter turnout in what is anticipated to be a closely contested election.
Recent data from the Federal Election Commission reveals that outside groups have poured over $6.5 million into the election, with more than $1.6 million coming from the pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. Notably, two-thirds of this super PAC spending has occurred in the last two weeks as early voting gains momentum. The lack of robust public polling in this typically lower-turnout special election adds another layer of uncertainty, compelling both campaigns to work tirelessly to secure every single vote.
An Emerson College poll released last week shows Van Epps holding a slight lead over Behn, though it falls within the margin of error. This aligns with earlier surveys from Democratic-leaning firms, which suggested an 8-point advantage for Van Epps—consistent with the average Democratic performance in special elections this year. With voter dynamics uncertain, the race remains highly competitive.
As the race enters its final sprint, both candidates are ramping up their campaign efforts, featuring endorsements from prominent figures. Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin have actively participated in canvassing events for Behn, while former Vice President Al Gore and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez headlined a Zoom rally to bolster support. On the other hand, House Speaker Mike Johnson organized a get-out-the-vote rally for Van Epps, which included a surprise call from Trump, emphasizing the national significance of the Tennessee election.
Both candidates are prioritizing the issue of affordability in their campaigns, particularly in their advertisements. Van Epps has openly embraced Trump's endorsement, centering his messaging around economic concerns. In one of his ads, he criticized career politicians and pledged to lower prices, create well-paying jobs, and reduce healthcare costs for families. Conversely, Behn's closing advertisement emphasizes her commitment to reforming Washington, making healthcare more affordable, and protecting workers and small businesses from detrimental tariffs.
During a telephone rally for Van Epps, Trump downplayed the significance of affordability, suggesting that it is merely a talking point used by Democrats to distract from what he described as his administration's achievements. "They like to talk about affordability," Trump remarked, calling it a "con job" that lacks substance.
This special election in Tennessee is not just a local contest; it is a reflection of broader national trends and a crucial test for both parties as they prepare for the 2026 midterms. As the campaigns intensify, all eyes will be on the 7th Congressional District to see which message resonates with voters and whether Democrats can continue their momentum in traditionally conservative areas.