On Tuesday, voters in central Tennessee will head to the polls for a pivotal election that could serve as a referendum on President Trump. The race features Republican nominee Matt Van Epps, a combat veteran, and Democrat Aftyn Behn, a sitting Tennessee state representative. They are competing for the seat in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District, a position left vacant following the resignation of former GOP Rep. Mark Green in July. Green had a strong hold on the district since 2019, winning his last election by over 20 points.
Tennessee's 7th Congressional District encompasses a diverse region stretching from parts of Nashville to the borders with Kentucky and Alabama, incorporating numerous rural counties. Traditionally viewed as a stronghold for Republicans, recent polling indicates a surprisingly tight race, with some surveys suggesting a single-digit margin between the candidates. This unexpected closeness has drawn significant attention, as millions in outside spending flood into the district, and key political figures rally to support both candidates.
The outcome of this special election is anticipated to serve as a critical indicator for the midterm elections next year. As Democrats celebrate a series of recent victories, conventional political wisdom suggests that the party in control of the White House often faces setbacks during midterms. The Tennessee special election follows notable Democratic successes in September and a sweep of key races during November elections, suggesting a potential shift in voter sentiment.
In the previous month, Democratic candidates Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill achieved significant victories in gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, respectively. Additionally, in New York City, democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani won the mayoral race. These outcomes signal a changing tide among the electorate, and even a narrow loss for Democrats in Tennessee could bolster their momentum heading into the midterms.
This special election has captured national interest, marked by substantial outside spending and high-profile visits from prominent political figures. House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned for Van Epps, emphasizing a stark contrast between the GOP's commitment to delivering on promises and what he described as a radical agenda from Democrats. In a notable moment, Johnson reached out to President Trump during a rally, who urged the crowd to secure a decisive victory, stating, "The whole world is watching Tennessee right now."
On the Democratic side, former Vice President Al Gore, a former representative from Tennessee, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez participated in a phone rally for Behn. Gore articulated the sentiment of many independent and bipartisan voters, expressing that they are frustrated with what he termed "Trump's madness and cruelty." He emphasized the significance of the election, stating, "Tennesseans are determined to claw back decency, self-respect, and common sense."
As the election day approaches, all eyes are on Tennessee's 7th Congressional District, making this election not just a local affair but a significant event that could have lasting implications for both parties in the upcoming midterm elections.