The overnight results from Thursday's elections have validated the predictions of recent polls, confirming that the Reform Party is emerging as a significant challenger to the long-standing dominance of traditional British politics, particularly the Conservative and Labour parties. Notably, the Reform Party achieved a remarkable victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, successfully overturning a staggering 35-point majority previously held by Labour.
In addition to its by-election victory, Andrea Jenkyns, a former Tory minister, has secured the new role of Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire. However, the Reform Party will likely face disappointment after narrowly losing to Labour in critical contests in Doncaster, North Tyneside, and the West of England. While the majority of local council elections are still being counted today, early results indicate that the Reform Party is on track for significant gains, boasting 39% of the vote declared thus far—enough to position it ahead of all competitors.
Furthermore, the Reform Party appears poised to potentially gain overall control in both Lincolnshire and Staffordshire, regions that demonstrated strong support for Brexit in the 2016 referendum. This marks the first instance of an anti-EU party winning a by-election in recent history, as previous wins were limited to two contests in 2014 when a local Tory MP resigned and contested under the UKIP banner.
The seat gains by the Reform Party have largely come at the expense of the Conservatives, who previously held nearly a thousand of the 1,641 seats contested. Despite this, the Conservative Party faces serious concerns, as they experienced a defeat comparable to the significant losses suffered in last year's general election. On average, the Conservative vote has decreased by 25 points since the last elections for these seats in May 2021, particularly in areas where Reform had previously performed well. Currently, the party has lost more than half of the seats it aimed to defend.
These results are expected to intensify discussions regarding the Conservative Party's strategy in response to the growing challenge from the Reform Party. Additionally, they underscore a notable decline in support for Labour since the last general election. Despite securing three mayoral victories, Labour's success came from a significantly reduced share of the vote. Fortunately for Labour, they are defending fewer than 300 seats in the local council elections, which could mitigate losses.
In contrast to the mayoral results, Labour has lost over half of the seats it aimed to protect, primarily to the Reform Party. Their vote share has decreased by up to nine points compared to their already lackluster performance in 2021. The Liberal Democrats and Greens are hoping for better outcomes as local council results are anticipated later today, with both parties aiming for a support level similar to that of four years ago.
However, the Greens may be disappointed as they fell short of surpassing Labour in the West of England mayoral race, ultimately trailing behind Reform in third place. Overall, the results reflect a trend of narrow victories and defeats, suggesting that no single party currently dominates British politics.
John Curtice, a Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde and Senior Fellow at the National Centre for Social Research, alongside analysts Patrick English, Steve Fisher, Robert Ford, and Lotte Hargrave, provides insight into these evolving political dynamics. The electoral landscape is clearly shifting, making it essential for all parties to reassess their strategies moving forward.
