On August 11, 2023, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his nomination of economist E.J. Antoni as the new commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This decision comes just ten days after Trump controversially fired the previous BLS leader, Erika McEntarfer, amidst accusations—without evidence—of data manipulation related to recent employment figures. The firing followed a disappointing job growth report that revealed weaker-than-expected numbers for July.
E.J. Antoni currently serves as the chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, a prominent conservative think tank. Throughout his career, he has been a vocal critic of the BLS, the agency responsible for releasing crucial monthly figures that inform economists, investors, and policymakers about the state of the job market and inflation. These statistics have a significant impact on financial markets worldwide.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump expressed confidence in Antoni's ability to deliver honest and accurate data. "Our economy is booming, and E.J. will ensure that the numbers released are honest and accurate," Trump stated. Antoni's nomination is also notable for his involvement in Project 2025, a controversial initiative aimed at overhauling the federal government.
The nomination has sparked concerns among economists regarding the potential implications for the integrity of U.S. economic data. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, noted that Antoni's appointment could lead to a heightened demand for private label data. Alex Jacquez, head of policy and advocacy at Groundwork Collaborative, criticized Antoni as a "sycophant," warning that his selection poses a serious threat to the independence of economic analysis.
Before assuming his role, Antoni must secure confirmation from the Senate. He will take charge of an agency facing increasing scrutiny over the quality of its data. Trump's dismissal of McEntarfer raised alarms about the reliability of BLS statistics, particularly following the agency's recent revisions to employment figures for May and June, which were significant in scale.
Trump's accusations against McEntarfer, who was appointed by former President Joe Biden, included claims of manipulating employment data for political gain. However, there has been no substantiated evidence to support these allegations. Trump vowed to appoint a more qualified individual to lead the agency, and with Antoni's background—holding a doctoral degree in economics and experience in labor economics—he brings academic credentials to the position.
Antoni will need to tackle critical issues facing the BLS, including declining survey response rates and data collection challenges affecting key statistics like inflation. According to Sung Won Sohn, a finance and economics professor, while Antoni possesses the necessary economic expertise, understanding the BLS's data compilation process is crucial. He noted that some forthcoming data might not align with Trump's expectations, which could lead to interesting reactions from the president.
The nonfarm payrolls report serves as an essential monthly snapshot of the U.S. job market, providing insights into job creation, unemployment rates, and worker earnings. The estimates are revised multiple times to incorporate additional employer survey responses and seasonal adjustments. Similarly, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) offer comprehensive views of U.S. inflation, influencing decisions made by policymakers at the Federal Reserve.
Years of underfunding at the BLS, compounded by the Trump administration's spending cuts and layoffs of public workers, have raised concerns about the reliability of the data. Erica Groshen, former BLS commissioner, expressed worries that reduced staffing could lead to missed deadlines and the introduction of biases or errors in reports. The implications of these changes could affect how economic data is perceived and utilized in policymaking.
As E.J. Antoni awaits Senate confirmation, the future of the BLS and the accuracy of U.S. economic data hang in the balance, with many watching closely how the agency navigates these challenges.
