A majority of Brazil’s supreme court judges have made a significant ruling, voting to convict former president Jair Bolsonaro for his involvement in a plot to orchestrate a military coup. This groundbreaking decision leaves the far-right populist facing a potential sentence of decades for leading a criminal conspiracy aimed at clinging to power after his loss in the 2022 elections.
On Thursday, Justice Cármen Lúcia Antunes Rocha delivered the decisive vote, declaring Bolsonaro guilty of attempting to undermine democratic processes in Brazil. Bolsonaro, a former paratrooper elected president in 2018, was found to have sought to forcibly retain power following his electoral defeat. Rocha emphasized the gravity of the situation, denouncing the conspiracy as an effort to “sow the malignant seed of anti-democracy” in Brazil, while also celebrating the resilience of the country's democratic institutions. “Brazilian democracy was not shaken,” Rocha stated, warning of the potential spread of “the virus of authoritarianism.”
Two additional judges, Alexandre de Moraes and Flávio Dino, also deemed Bolsonaro guilty, with Moraes labeling the former president as the leader of a “criminal organization” that aimed to revert Brazil to dictatorship. In a lengthy five-hour address, Moraes detailed the systematic conspiracy against Brazilian democracy, stating, “The victim is the Brazilian state.” The conspiracy reportedly unfolded between July 2021 and January 2023, culminating in an uprising by Bolsonaro supporters who violently stormed Brasília after the inauguration of left-wing winner Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
A fourth judge, Luiz Fux, dissented on Wednesday, arguing there was “absolutely no proof” that Bolsonaro was aware of or participated in the alleged plot to assassinate Lula and Moraes. Fux condemned the January 8, 2023, uprising, calling it a “barbaric act” that caused damage of an “Amazonian-scale.” However, he controversially claimed the court lacked jurisdiction over the case and asserted that there was insufficient evidence to hold Bolsonaro accountable for inciting the riots. Nevertheless, Fux voted to convict two of Bolsonaro’s closest associates, including former defense minister Gen Walter Braga Netto and aide-de-camp Lt Col Mauro Cid, for their roles in the conspiracy.
As the court proceedings continue, Bolsonaro's sentence is anticipated to be determined on Friday, following the vote of the last judge, Cristiano Zanin. Legal experts suggest that the former president could face a sentence as severe as 43 years for crimes related to engineering a coup d’état and violently attempting to dismantle Brazil’s democracy. This ruling comes while Bolsonaro remains under house arrest in his nearby mansion, with police stationed to prevent any attempts at fleeing to foreign embassies.
The reaction to Bolsonaro’s conviction has been mixed. While many progressives celebrate the accountability of a leader accused of environmental destruction and mishandling the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns linger regarding the survival of Bolsonaro's political movement. Political scientist Dr. Camila Rocha warns against declaring Bolsonaro’s political demise, predicting that his supporters will continue to push for his release. Strategies may include electing right-wing senators in upcoming elections who could seek to impeach judges perceived as opponents of Bolsonaro, and leveraging international support from figures like Donald Trump.
In recent discussions, pro-Bolsonaro lawmakers are advocating for an amnesty for the former president and others involved in the coup attempt and the January riots, claiming it would help “pacify” a divided nation. However, author Fabio Victor, who specializes in military involvement in Brazilian politics, cautions that such an amnesty would undermine democratic principles. “It would send an awful signal – it would undoubtedly represent a setback to democracy,” he warned.
As the situation develops, the future of Brazilian democracy and the political landscape remains uncertain, with ongoing debates about accountability and the implications of Bolsonaro’s actions.
