Wherever Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl lands at the box office, it’s already being considered an unprecedented phenomenon. This release, distributed by AMC, marks another significant entry into the world of concert films featuring the global superstar. What’s particularly groundbreaking is that no other motion picture studio has ever scheduled a wide release just two weeks out with such a minimal print and advertising (P&A) campaign. The marketing strategy relies heavily on the social media influence of Swift herself, aiming for what is projected to be a No. 1 box office haul.
Domestic estimates for the film suggest an opening weekend revenue between $30 million and $35 million across approximately 3,500 locations. This release is strategically timed to coincide with the launch of Swift’s highly anticipated 12th studio album, thereby capitalizing on her immense fanbase. Internationally, the film is available in more than 50 markets, with projections estimating an additional $8 million to $10 million in earnings, leading to a potential global total of around $45 million.
Much like her previous concert film, The Eras Tour, the box office performance of Showgirl is primarily driven by audiences in the U.S. and Canada. The director of this highly anticipated mix of lyrics, music videos, and documentary segments remains a mystery at the time of writing. However, even if Showgirl underperforms with an opening of $25 million in the U.S. and Canada, it would still be considered a solid result. For context, her last concert film, which was anticipated to exceed $100 million, ultimately achieved a remarkable $93.2 million opening weekend, marking the second-best start for a film in October, only behind 2019’s Joker.
Current tracking indicates that women under 25 are the primary target audience, showing significant interest with a ratio of 25% in first-choice preferences, compared to 9% for women over 25 and low single digits for men. In the first day of sales alone, Showgirl generated approximately $15 million, making it AMC's sixth-biggest first-day presale ever, with projections now exceeding $20 million.
The marketing campaign for Showgirl includes several strategic appearances by Swift, such as her recent feature on the Graham Norton Show in the UK. Furthermore, a unique Spotify pop-up experience in New York City commenced yesterday and will continue through October 2. Swift is also scheduled to appear on The Tonight Show on October 6 and Late Night With Seth Meyers on October 8, with speculation regarding a potential cameo on the Saturday Night Live season 51 opener this weekend.
In a weekend where A24’s The Smashing Machine, starring Dwayne Johnson, was anticipated to perform well, Swift's Showgirl has drawn attention away from that film and Warner Bros.’ One Battle After Another. The two films will share premium large formats (PLFs) with Disney's Avatar: The Way of Water, which is expected to bring in $3 million to $4 million from its 3D re-release. Avatar 2, which has grossed $2.3 billion worldwide, will feature a sneak peek of the upcoming Avatar: Fire & Ash at the end of the film, adding to its allure.
Meanwhile, the Smashing Machine, directed by Benny Safdie, is projected to achieve an opening of $9 million to $10 million from 3,000 theaters, down from its original estimate of $20 million. The film focuses on mixed martial arts champion Mark Kerr and his tumultuous journey, with early reviews from Venice and TIFF boasting a 76% approval rating.
In addition, Bleecker Street is releasing the erotic thriller Bone Lake, directed by Mercedes Bryce Morgan, across 1,045 sites. The film has received positive critical acclaim, holding a 94% fresh rating. It tells the story of a couple whose idyllic getaway turns into a nightmare as they deal with a mysterious pair sharing their vacation home.
As the box office landscape continues to evolve, the success of Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl will undoubtedly set new benchmarks in the industry, showcasing the power of celebrity influence on ticket sales.
