Taylor Swift‘s latest theatrical event, Life of a Showgirl, is dominating the domestic box office, set to achieve a remarkable first-place finish with an estimated weekend haul ranging from $28 million to $32 million across 3,702 theaters. Estimates from Swift’s team and her partner, AMC Theatres, suggest that rival distributors are projecting even higher earnings, possibly exceeding $35 million. This impressive performance starkly contrasts with the disappointing ticket sales of the Dwayne Johnson-led wrestling drama, The Smashing Machine, which is struggling in its domestic debut.
Playing in 3,345 theaters, The Smashing Machine managed to garner only $2.7 million on Friday, leading to a projected weekend opening of around $6 million. This falls significantly short of the anticipated $12 million to $14 million range. The film, touted as an awards contender for Johnson, is expected to finish in third place behind Life of a Showgirl and the holdover One Battle After Another. Audience reception has not been kind, as evidenced by its B- CinemaScore. While critics have rated it a respectable 77% on Rotten Tomatoes, the overall reception has been lukewarm.
In stark contrast, Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl has earned a coveted A+ CinemaScore from her fans, mirroring the success of her previous concert film, Eras Tour. An impressive 90% of Friday's moviegoers were female, showcasing Swift's strong fanbase. Her team undertook extensive measures to keep the Showgirl project under wraps until the last minute, much to the dismay of competing distributors who prefer avoiding last-minute surprises. The announcement for the special event, running from October 3 to October 5, was made on September 19 via a well-planned social media post. Fans were informed that advance tickets would be available for sale that day at 12:12 local time for the symbolic price of $12, reflecting Swift’s longstanding affinity with numbers, as Showgirl is her 12th studio album.
Consumers should be prepared to pay more than $12 for premium large format screenings. Life of a Showgirl is only in theaters for three days and can best be described as a unique blend of lyric videos for tracks from her new album, music videos, and exclusive behind-the-scenes footage. It features the world premiere of the music video for the Showgirl single, “The Fate of Ophelia,” which Swift directed herself.
In 2023, Swift's Eras Tour concert film catapulted her into box office fame, opening to a staggering $93.2 million domestically and ultimately becoming the highest-grossing concert film of all time with $261.6 million in global ticket sales. Swift and her team independently financed the $15 million project, opting to bypass the traditional Hollywood studio system by partnering with AMC Theatres for distribution. AMC Theatres Distribution is working in conjunction with Variance Films in the U.S. and Canada, as well as Piece of Magic Entertainment in international markets.
According to a review from THR, “The 89-minute cinematic experience — neither a visual album nor a concert film, and not quite a documentary — is strictly for the diehards.” The review notes that while the communal experience of enjoying an album surrounded by fellow fans has its merits, the content presented on screen is more filler than killer.
Meanwhile, The Smashing Machine, directed by Benny Safdie, reintroduces Dwayne Johnson to audiences, featuring his Jungle Cruise co-star and friend, Emily Blunt, who played a pivotal role in connecting Johnson and Safdie. This film is based on the real-life story of Mark Kerr, a former college wrestler who struggled with trauma and addiction during the early days of the UFC. This marks Johnson's first attempt at an awards season play.
Additionally, James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water is being re-released exclusively in 3D. Similar to Swift’s promotional strategy, Cameron and partner 20th Century/Disney are utilizing the box office for promotional purposes ahead of the Christmas release of Avatar: Ash and Fire. The film is set to play in 90% of all IMAX auditoriums domestically, while sharing premium large-format screens with other films. Way of Water is projected to earn between $2 million and $3 million from 2,100 theaters this weekend.
Stay tuned for more updates on these box office developments!
