The U.S. holiday shopping season is projected to generate an impressive $253.4 billion in online sales this year, reflecting a growth of 5.3% compared to last year. This forecast comes from a comprehensive report by Adobe Analytics, which specializes in e-commerce analytics. The company bases its predictions on an extensive analysis of over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail websites, covering 100 million stock-keeping units (SKUs) across 18 different product categories. Adobe Analytics is widely used by a majority of the top 100 online retailers in the U.S., providing valuable insights into online shopping trends and consumer behavior.
Adobe Analytics anticipates that Cyber Monday will dominate as the biggest shopping day of the year, with online sales expected to reach $14.2 billion, marking a 6.3% increase year-over-year. Black Friday is also set to experience significant growth, projected to reach $11.7 billion with an 8.3% increase from the previous year. Additionally, U.S. consumers are expected to spend $6.4 billion online on Thanksgiving Day, which represents a 4.9% rise from last year, indicating a trend of early online sales.
The surge in holiday sales can be attributed to several factors, with consumer demand for discounts being a primary driver. Products are expected to be offered at an average discount of 28% off their listed prices this season. Additionally, the growing trend of online shopping via mobile devices is set to reshape the retail landscape, with more consumers opting to shop from their smartphones and tablets.
Another significant trend this year is the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) in the shopping experience. Adobe predicts that generative AI-powered shopping will see a dramatic increase, with AI traffic to retail sites expected to grow by 520% year-over-year. This trend is particularly noticeable in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving. Following a staggering 1,300% increase in AI traffic observed in 2024, consumers are increasingly turning to AI for research and assistance in their purchasing decisions. A recent survey conducted by Adobe among 5,000 U.S. consumers revealed that 53% may use AI services for research, while 40% indicated they would rely on AI for product recommendations, 36% for finding deals, and 30% for gift inspiration. Key categories benefiting from AI usage include toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care products.
This year, mobile devices are anticipated to account for a record 56.1% of online spending, surpassing last year's share of 54.5%. The growth in mobile shopping is likely to continue as larger-screen smartphones make online shopping more accessible. Furthermore, the use of buy now, pay later (BNPL) services is projected to contribute significantly to holiday sales, with expected online spending to reach $20.2 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year. Cyber Monday alone is expected to set a new BNPL milestone, with online spending in this category projected to hit $1.04 billion, a 5% increase from last year.
Social media is also playing an increasingly important role in driving online sales this holiday season. Advertising through social platforms is expected to yield a 51% increase in online revenue year-over-year, a substantial rise compared to the 5% growth observed in 2024. The top categories anticipated to see the highest spending include electronics ($57.5 billion, up 4% YoY), apparel ($47.6 billion, up 4.4% YoY), and furniture ($31.1 billion, up 6.5% YoY).
In summary, the upcoming U.S. holiday shopping season is set to be marked by substantial growth in online sales, driven by factors such as consumer demand for discounts, the rise of AI in shopping, and the increasing influence of mobile devices and social media. Retailers should prepare for an exciting and competitive holiday season.
