Companies, consumers, policymakers, and investors across the United States are currently “flying blind” during a critical period for the world’s largest economy. This warning comes from a former top official following the recent postponement of the closely-watched jobs report, which was halted due to the federal government shutdown. Despite the fact that the data needed for the report has already been gathered, the Trump administration has resisted calls to release the information.
According to two former heads of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the employment growth data has been fully collected. However, the Trump administration's refusal to release this report leaves many in uncertainty. Employment growth has been on a decline for several months, raising concerns among economists and market analysts alike.
Erica Groshen, a former BLS commissioner during the Obama administration, expressed her concerns: “Without today’s jobs report and next week’s scheduled inflation release (the data for which are already collected), the Federal Reserve, US Treasury, financial markets, businesses, and households will be flying blind. They will be less certain of current conditions at what may or may not be the beginning of a recession – precisely when their decisions are most consequential.”
William Beach, who led the BLS under both Trump and Biden, confirmed that the jobs data for September “have been completely collected and processed” by the agency. He noted, “The jobs report is likely written in final draft,” emphasizing the readiness of the data that remains inaccessible due to the shutdown.
A private jobs report from ADP, a payroll processing company, revealed that US firms experienced a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, contradicting Wall Street predictions of a 45,000-job increase. Furthermore, ADP revised its August figures from a growth of 54,000 jobs to a loss of 3,000 jobs, highlighting the evolving landscape of the labor market.
Paul Schroeder, executive director of the Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics, stated, “The monthly jobs report is a key economic indicator which is particularly critical at this moment as economists are trying to understand how much the US labor market has cooled. Since the release is delayed, a significant piece of the labor market puzzle is missing.”
Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren has urged the Trump administration to release the pending jobs report and inflation data despite the ongoing shutdown. “The jobs data scheduled to come out this Friday has undoubtedly been collected, and the President must release it,” she asserted. “Without it, the Federal Reserve will not have the complete picture necessary to make informed decisions this month about interest rates that will impact every family across the country.”
Warren emphasized that President Trump has the authority to ensure that the federal government continues to produce and disseminate this critical information even during the shutdown.
Under the current shutdown, the BLS has implemented a contingency plan that entails furloughing all employees except for the acting commissioner. An agency spokesperson noted, “In the event of a federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will suspend data collection, processing, and dissemination. Once funding is restored, BLS will resume normal operations and notify the public of any changes to the news release schedule on the BLS release calendar.”
As the situation develops, the economic implications of delayed data release remain significant, leaving stakeholders across various sectors anxiously awaiting more clarity on the US labor market and its broader economic impact.
