On July 3, 2023, oil prices saw a minor decrease as investors expressed concerns over U.S. tariffs potentially dampening energy demand, coinciding with an anticipated increase in supply from major crude producers. Brent crude futures closed at $68.80 a barrel, marking a drop of 31 cents, or 0.45%. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell by 45 cents, or 0.67%, settling at $67 in light trading ahead of the Independence Day holiday.
The impending end of President Donald Trump's 90-day pause on the implementation of higher U.S. tariffs is set for July 9. Notably, several significant trading partners, including the European Union and Japan, have yet to finalize trade agreements. As a result, oil traders are increasingly worried about the potential repercussions on the economy and fuel demand. While a preliminary trade deal between the U.S. and Vietnam provided a brief boost to prices on Wednesday, the overarching uncertainty surrounding tariffs continues to weigh heavily on the market.
Further contributing to the decline in oil prices, the OPEC+ group is expected to reach an agreement to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day during its upcoming policy meeting. Additionally, a recent private-sector survey indicated that service activity in China—the world's largest oil importer—expanded at its slowest rate in nine months during June, driven by weakened demand and a decline in new export orders.
In the United States, a surprising increase in crude inventories has highlighted ongoing concerns about demand in the world's largest crude consumer. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that domestic crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels to reach 419 million barrels last week. This increase contradicted analysts’ expectations, which had predicted a drawdown of 1.8 million barrels.
Despite the uncertainty in the oil markets, a report released on Thursday indicated solid job growth in June, with unemployment rates unexpectedly declining. However, nearly half of the increase in nonfarm payrolls originated from the government sector, as private sector job gains slowed significantly. This downturn in private employment has been attributed to the challenges faced by industries like manufacturing and retail, largely due to Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports. David Laut, chief investment officer of Abound Financial, noted that while the jobs report was stronger than anticipated, the overall economic resilience observed in recent months remains intact. He further indicated that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its wait-and-see approach regarding interest rates.
On Wednesday, both Brent and WTI contracts reached one-week highs following Iran's suspension of cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog. This development has heightened concerns that the ongoing dispute surrounding Iran's nuclear program could escalate into armed conflict. In response, Washington imposed new sanctions related to Iran, alongside measures targeting the Hezbollah network, as reported by the U.S. Treasury Department.
Despite these geopolitical tensions, market analysts like John Kilduff from Again Capital suggest that the market is likely to remain stable for the time being. He noted that historical efforts to resolve such issues have not been particularly effective, leading to a cautious yet steady outlook for oil prices moving forward.
Reporting by Nicole Jao in New York, Ahmad Ghaddar and Robert Harvey in London; Editing by Barbara Lewis, David Gregorio, and Daniel Wallis.
