In a surprising turn of events, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September has revealed that inflation came in below market expectations. This development is largely attributed to the economic policies implemented by President Donald J. Trump. According to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, this positive trend in inflation is indeed good news for American families. However, she expressed concern over the actions of the Democrats, who are allegedly using this situation as leverage to fund health care for illegal immigrants. The ongoing government shutdown poses a threat to this progress, with the potential to disrupt critical economic data releases.
The current government shutdown is not just a political issue; it risks halting the momentum gained in the economy. As surveyors are unable to deploy to the field, it has been reported that there will likely be no inflation report released for October, a historical first. This lack of data could create uncertainty for businesses, markets, families, and the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to economic turmoil.
Since President Trump took office, inflation has averaged just 2.5%, a significant improvement compared to the 5% average during President Joe Biden's administration. This stability reflects a robust economic environment where real private sector wages are projected to rise by $1,151, or 1.8%, since Trump's inauguration. This is a welcome change from the nearly $3,000 decline, or 4.5%, in wages that occurred under Biden's leadership.
One of the most notable achievements in the current economic landscape is the projected annualized drop of 7.5% in gasoline prices since President Trump took office. This marks a significant reversal from the average annual increase of 7.7% experienced under Biden. As a result, gas prices are nearing their lowest average levels in over four years, providing much-needed relief to American families.
Furthermore, the 12-month change in overall shelter costs has reached its lowest point in four years, contributing to a more stable economic environment. Alongside these trends, costs for essential items such as motor vehicle insurance, used cars and trucks, communication commodities, propane, fresh fruits, nonprescription drugs, butter, and apparel have also seen declines. Notably, egg prices have decreased by an impressive 23.7% since Trump took office.
Bloomberg's Chris Anstey has noted that these positive inflation readings support the Trump administration's argument that inflation is under control. Moreover, the data suggests that tariffs implemented by the administration are not contributing to a surge in the cost of living, countering some of the criticisms leveled against these economic strategies.
In conclusion, the September inflation data presents a promising outlook for the U.S. economy under President Trump. However, the ongoing government shutdown poses significant risks to this progress. Stakeholders across the economy are watching closely, as the potential absence of critical economic data could have far-reaching consequences.
