On February 28, 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is scheduled to meet with President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C., to finalize a significant agreement that would facilitate U.S. participation in Ukraine's mineral industry. This meeting is crucial for Kyiv as it seeks to regain U.S. support in its ongoing battle against Russia's invasion, especially as Trump begins discussions with Moscow.
President Zelenskiy has previously received substantial military aid and moral support from the Biden administration, accumulating billions of dollars worth of U.S. weaponry. However, the current political landscape presents a stark contrast with Trump's approach, which emphasizes a rapid de-escalation of the three-year conflict and a desire to improve relations with Russia. This shift in U.S. policy has raised alarms in Kyiv and among its European allies, who fear that Ukraine might be coerced into a peace deal that favors Russia.
The agreement, which has been negotiated over recent days, aims to unlock Ukraine's abundant mineral resources for U.S. investment. However, it notably lacks explicit American security guarantees for Ukraine, which has left Kyiv feeling disappointed. Trump contends that the involvement of American businesses in Ukraine will serve as a form of assurance for the country. The total value of this deal for the United States has not been clearly defined, although Trump has suggested that it could yield hundreds of billions of dollars.
Under the proposed terms, Ukraine would allocate 50% of all revenues generated from the monetization of government-owned natural resource assets to a joint reconstruction fund managed by both the United States and Ukraine. The specifics of how these funds will be utilized or which assets will be covered remain unclear, but they are expected to include mineral deposits, oil, natural gas, and essential infrastructure such as gas terminals and ports.
This meeting represents a significant diplomatic opportunity for Zelenskiy, who has emphasized the need to engage with Trump before the U.S. president meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin. A senior European diplomat based in Kyiv noted that the Ukrainian government has skillfully leveraged this mineral deal as an avenue to strengthen U.S.-Ukraine relations. Kyiv is optimistic that this agreement will bolster Trump's support for Ukraine's military efforts and potentially garner backing from Republican members of Congress for additional aid.
While Ukraine has rapidly expanded its defense industry, the country remains heavily dependent on foreign military assistance. As it contends with a larger adversary, Ukraine has also faced challenges in replenishing its manpower. Despite successfully repelling the Russian invasion from the outskirts of Kyiv and regaining significant territory in 2022, Russia continues to control approximately one-fifth of Ukraine and has made incremental advances following a stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023.
In recent weeks, a public rift has emerged between Trump and Zelenskiy, with Trump criticizing the Ukrainian leader's management of the war and labeling him a dictator. However, during a joint news conference with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump appeared to downplay his previous comments, expressing his eagerness to meet Zelenskiy and praising the bravery of the Ukrainian military. He stated, "We're working very hard to get that war brought to an end. I think we've made a lot of progress, and I think it's moving along pretty rapidly."
Starmer, who attended the news conference, highlighted discussions with Trump regarding a robust and fair peace plan that Ukraine would help shape, emphasizing the need for strength to deter any future aggression from Putin. Although Starmer urged for U.S. involvement in peacekeeping efforts, Trump did not commit to this request.
As the situation evolves, the outcome of Zelenskiy's meeting with Trump could have significant implications for the future of U.S.-Ukraine relations and the ongoing conflict with Russia.
