On June 7, 2023, U.S. officials revealed to Reuters that they believe Russian President Vladimir Putin's threatened retaliation against Ukraine in response to a recent drone attack has not yet materialized in full force. The anticipated response is expected to be a significant, multi-pronged strike, although the timing remains unclear. According to one source, a comprehensive Russian response could occur within days, raising concerns over escalating tensions in the region.
While U.S. officials spoke on the condition of anonymity, they hinted that Russia's retaliation would likely incorporate various air capabilities, including missiles and drones. They did not specify which targets Russia might pursue nor did they disclose any specific intelligence details. One official characterized Moscow's planned attack as asymmetrical, suggesting that the strategy and targeting would differ from Ukraine's recent strike against Russian warplanes.
In response to Ukraine's actions, which Russia labeled as "terrorist acts," the Russian Defense Ministry conducted a significant barrage of missiles and drones targeting the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. However, U.S. officials contend that the complete Russian response is yet to be executed. A Western diplomatic source indicated that while some retaliatory actions may have already commenced, they would likely escalate to include strikes against high-profile Ukrainian targets, such as government buildings, in order to convey a clear message to the Ukrainian government.
Anticipation of further assaults by Moscow has been echoed by a senior Western diplomat, who described the upcoming retaliation as "huge, vicious, and unrelenting." Despite the looming threats, the diplomat expressed confidence in the resilience of the Ukrainian people. Michael Kofman, a leading expert on Russian military affairs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, suggested that Russia may focus on punishing Ukraine's domestic security agency, the SBU, for its involvement in the recent drone strike. Kofman speculated that Russia could employ intermediate-range ballistic missiles to target SBU headquarters or other regional intelligence facilities, as well as Ukrainian defense manufacturing centers.
However, Kofman also noted that Russia's options for retaliation might be limited, given the extensive military resources already committed to the conflict. He stated, "Russia's ability to substantially escalate strikes from what they are already doing is quite constrained," indicating that the Kremlin may face challenges in launching a more extensive military campaign.
In a striking move, Ukraine claimed that its recent drone assault utilized 117 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) launched deep from within Russian territory in an operation dubbed 'Spider's Web'. The U.S. assesses that the operation resulted in damage to approximately 20 warplanes, with around 10 aircraft reportedly destroyed, a claim that contrasts with the Russian government's denial of any losses. Russian military bloggers, however, have acknowledged significant damage to several planes, including those equipped for nuclear capabilities.
This operation, meticulously prepared over the past 18 months, represents a major symbolic victory for Ukraine, striking at the heart of Russia's long-promoted nuclear might. In a recent conversation, Putin informed former President Donald Trump of the necessity for a response to the attack, which Trump later described as "probably not going to be pretty." Trump urged Putin to reconsider any military escalation, highlighting the ongoing volatility in the region.
As the situation develops, the international community remains watchful. The responses from the Russian and Ukrainian embassies in Washington, as well as the White House, have not yet been forthcoming, raising questions about the next steps in this escalating conflict.
