A recent preliminary classified report from the U.S. indicates that the bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites successfully sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities. However, the airstrikes did not lead to the collapse of their underground structures, according to officials familiar with the findings. This initial assessment reveals that the bombings over the weekend have only managed to set back Iran’s nuclear program by a few months.
Before the military action, U.S. intelligence agencies estimated that if Iran were to hastily pursue the development of a nuclear bomb, it would take approximately three months. Following the U.S. bombing run, along with consecutive days of attacks by the Israeli Air Force, the report from the Defense Intelligence Agency posits that Iran’s nuclear program has been delayed by less than six months.
Former officials have cautioned that any accelerated effort by Iran to develop a nuclear bomb would likely result in a relatively small and crude device. The creation of a miniaturized warhead is considerably more complex, and it remains uncertain how significantly the recent strikes have impacted Iran's more advanced nuclear research.
The findings in the report suggest that President Trump’s assertion regarding the obliteration of Iran’s nuclear facilities may have been overstated, at least based on this initial damage assessment. Congress was scheduled to receive a briefing on the strike on Tuesday; however, this session has since been postponed. Senators are now expected to be briefed on the situation this Thursday.
Significantly, the report also indicates that much of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was moved prior to the strikes, resulting in minimal destruction of the nuclear material. Some of this enriched uranium may have been relocated to secret nuclear sites maintained by Iran, raising further concerns about the effectiveness of the U.S. military action.
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