ISTANBUL (AP) — A recent Israeli airstrike targeting a meeting of Hamas officials in Qatar has ignited rising concerns across Turkey regarding potential threats to its national security. Rear Adm. Zeki Akturk, a spokesperson for the Turkish Defense Ministry, issued a stark warning from Ankara on Thursday, stating that Israel is likely to “further expand its reckless attacks, as it did in Qatar, and drag the entire region, including its own country, into disaster.”
Historically, Israel and Turkey shared a strong partnership, but relations have soured significantly since the late 2000s, culminating in a dramatic decline following the recent war in Gaza. This conflict was triggered by a Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023. As tensions have escalated, both nations have competed for influence in neighboring Syria, especially following the fall of Bashar Assad's government last year, exacerbating existing strains.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has consistently backed the Palestinian cause and shows unwavering support for Hamas. Since the onset of the Gaza war, Erdogan has directed harsh criticism towards Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, accusing Israel of committing genocide and drawing comparisons to Nazi leader Adolf Hitler. This hostile rhetoric reflects Turkey’s deep-rooted commitment to the Palestinian struggle.
Hamas officials frequently visit Turkey and some have established residence there. Israel has previously accused Turkey of allowing Hamas to orchestrate attacks from its territory, as well as engaging in recruitment and fundraising efforts within its borders. Erdogan maintains strong ties with Qatar’s leadership and enjoys robust military and commercial relations with the emirate, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.
Following Israel's strikes on Iran, Syria, Yemen, and now Qatar, there is growing apprehension in Ankara regarding Israel’s capacity to operate freely within the airspace of neighboring states. “Israel’s ability to conduct strikes with seeming impunity, often bypassing regional air defenses and international norms, sets a precedent that deeply worries Ankara,” noted Serhat Suha Cubukcuoglu, director of Trends Research and Advisory’s Turkey program.
Turkey perceives these attacks as part of a broader Israeli strategy aimed at creating a fragmented buffer zone of weakened or pacified states surrounding it. The recent strike on Qatar, a close ally of the United States and a mediator in ceasefire discussions in Gaza, raises significant questions regarding Israel's intentions and how far it is willing to go in targeting Hamas.
Through its NATO membership, Turkey arguably possesses a greater degree of protection against Israeli attacks than Qatar, given its close ties with the United States. Furthermore, Turkey boasts a formidable military presence, with armed forces that rank second in size among NATO countries, only after the U.S., coupled with an advanced defense industry.
In response to the escalating tensions, Turkey has ramped up its military defenses. Following Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities last June, Erdogan announced an increase in missile production capabilities. Additionally, last month he formally inaugurated Turkey’s “Steel Dome” integrated air defense system and expedited projects such as the KAAN fifth-generation fighter jet.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, stated that while an Israeli airstrike on NATO territory is “extremely unlikely,” smaller-scale bombings or gun attacks on possible Hamas targets within Turkey by Israeli operatives cannot be ruled out. This speculation underscores the precarious balance Turkey is trying to maintain amidst rising tensions.
According to Cubukcuoglu, the attack in Qatar may further solidify Ankara's support for Hamas. “This resonates with Turkish anxieties that Israel may eventually extend such operations to Turkish territory,” he remarked. The Turkish government believes that distancing itself from Hamas now would diminish its influence in the region, while staunch support enhances its role as a defender of Palestinian rights against Israeli aggression.
As the focus remains on the Gaza conflict and Turkey’s relationship with Hamas, Unluhisarcikli warned that the more significant threat may lie in Syria, where both Israel and Turkey are on a potential collision course. “To think that targeting Turkish troops or allies in Syria would be to go too far is wishful thinking,” he cautioned. Since the Syrian rebels ousted Assad in December, tensions have escalated between Turkey and Israel, particularly as Ankara seeks to expand its influence in the region.
Israel views the newly established interim government in Syria with skepticism, having conducted hundreds of airstrikes on Syrian military installations. This has positioned Israel as the protector of the Druze minority against the Sunni Muslim authorities in Damascus, further complicating the dynamics.
Turkey appears to be navigating a dual strategy of military deterrence and diplomacy in Syria to avert direct conflict with Israel. Turkish and Israeli officials engaged in discussions in April to create a “de-escalation mechanism” in Syria after Israeli strikes targeted a Syrian airbase that Turkey was allegedly planning to utilize. Netanyahu expressed concerns that Turkish bases in Syria posed a threat to Israel.
In a recent development, Ankara and Damascus signed an agreement for Turkey to provide military training and advice to Syria’s armed forces. Erdogan may also expect Washington to adopt a firm stance against any Israeli military incursions, although past interactions suggest that strong ties with the U.S. may not safeguard against Israeli actions.
As the airstrike in Qatar demonstrated, there seems to be “no limit to what the Israeli government can do,” as Unluhisarcikli puts it, highlighting the precarious position Turkey finds itself in amid rising regional tensions.
