More than a dozen summer camps line the picturesque banks of the Guadalupe River and its tributaries, creating a vibrant network of recreational opportunities in the stunning hills of Kerr County, Texas. However, these idyllic locations are not without their dangers, as many of these camps are situated in areas identified as high-risk for flooding by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). A recent analysis by The Washington Post revealed that at least 13 camps located near the upper Guadalupe River are either directly adjacent to or partially within designated flood zones.
The rural region northwest of San Antonio is part of a notorious area known as Flash Flood Alley, which has gained recognition as one of the deadliest locales in the United States for rapid flooding events. Over the recent holiday weekend, this risk transformed into a tragic reality when torrential rains inundated the area, causing river waters to surge into campgrounds during the night. As of the following Monday, reports confirmed the deaths of at least 94 individuals, including 28 children, as a result of these devastating flash floods.
Richard Eastland Jr., whose family has managed the beloved Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp for girls, described the overwhelming nature of the flooding. "We do get watches a lot in this area, and we have floods," he noted. "But this, I don’t know how else to explain it; it was tremendous, and it was fast. We’ve never had water this high, ever."
Camp Mystic and its neighboring camps sit within the scenic Texas Hill Country, characterized by winding rivers that navigate through rolling hills and rugged valleys. However, this captivating landscape also heightens the risk of flooding. Hatim Sharif, a civil and environmental engineering professor at the University of Texas at San Antonio, explained that the geographical features, including a series of cliffs and steep hills known as the Balcones Escarpment, contribute to the area’s propensity for intense rainfall. Warm air from the Gulf of Mexico rises over these formations, condensing and resulting in heavy downpours that can quickly funnel water into streams and rivers, leading to sudden surges in water levels.
As climate change continues to elevate global temperatures, the capacity of the atmosphere to retain moisture increases, thereby escalating the likelihood of severe downpours and subsequent flooding. This phenomenon poses significant threats to several summer camps situated along the Guadalupe River, including Camp Mystic, which has a storied history with notable attendees including the daughters of former President Lyndon B. Johnson and several Texas governors. Tragically, the camp reported that 27 campers and staff, including camp director Richard Eastland Sr., lost their lives due to the catastrophic flooding.
Nearby, floodwaters also impacted Camp La Junta, a boys’ camp that has been operational for over 90 years. Fortunately, by Friday evening, all campers were safely evacuated, as confirmed by a post on the camp's official Facebook page.
While landowners are permitted to construct buildings in high-risk flood areas, they must adhere to specific regulations outlined by local authorities. Joel Scata, a senior attorney in the Natural Resources Defense Council, pointed out that although FEMA’s building standards have remained unchanged since 1976, local municipalities can implement stricter requirements. In fact, Kerr County enacted flood damage prevention orders in 2020, mandating that newly constructed or significantly renovated buildings be elevated to mitigate the risk of flood damage.
However, many structures in high-risk zones tend to be lower-value buildings, such as cabins or mobile home parks, which raises concerns about the safety of individuals occupying these spaces. "We often think about building in floodplains as placing low-value structures in flood-prone areas," Reilly noted. "But that perspective overlooks the real risks to people, especially children, who may be using these facilities."
In flood-prone areas, it is essential for communities to adopt various strategies to minimize risk. This includes elevating structures, implementing early-warning systems, and ensuring comprehensive evacuation plans are in place. In Texas, youth camps are required to maintain emergency preparedness plans, which are verified during annual inspections by the Texas Department of State Health Services. These plans must be accessible to campers, detailing procedures in the event of a fire, disaster, or evacuation.
Despite these regulations, many individuals in the flood-prone region were caught off guard by the unprecedented severity of this disaster. It’s crucial to understand that just because a structure is outside designated risk areas does not guarantee safety. FEMA’s flood maps are based on historical data and do not predict future flooding scenarios. "They assume that past flooding patterns will continue into the future, which is not a reliable assumption," Scata cautioned. He emphasized the need for more accurate data that reflects future flood risks, given the increasing intensity of rainstorm events that can skew existing flood risk maps.
The tragic events surrounding the summer camps along the Guadalupe River highlight the urgent need for improved safety measures and preparedness strategies in areas vulnerable to flooding. As climate change continues to present new challenges, communities must prioritize the safety of their residents and visitors.
