The Texas Hill Country is renowned for its breathtaking landscapes, shaped over centuries by the relentless flow of its waterways. These streams, creeks, and rivers have carved intricate paths through the region's granite and limestone formations. However, when excessive rainfall occurs, the ground can no longer absorb the water, leading to significant flooding. The rainwater swiftly cascades downhill, filling waterways beyond their banks and causing overflow in predictable patterns that follow the terrain.
Government agencies and waterway managers are well aware of which areas are most susceptible to flooding during historic rain events. For instance, several camps along the Guadalupe River and its tributaries experienced damage during the early hours of July 4. Many of these camps are located in known flood-prone areas. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) maintains a comprehensive database of flood zones across the country, identifying regulatory floodways—areas that flood first and pose the greatest danger—as well as regions at risk during extreme weather events.
The flooding experienced along the Guadalupe River was classified as a 1-in-100-year event, indicating a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. However, the frequency of such extreme flooding events has been increasing due to climate change, which allows the atmosphere to retain more moisture. This year alone, Texas has witnessed multiple dangerous flooding incidents, while the entire United States recorded a historic number of flash flood emergencies last year.
On the Fourth of July, central Texas faced a deluge, with some areas receiving an entire summer’s worth of rain within just a few hours. The rapid saturation of dry soils led to significant flash flooding, particularly alarming given that regions in central Texas are currently grappling with some of the worst drought conditions in the United States. These bone-dry soils are particularly vulnerable to swift flooding, creating perilous situations for residents and campers alike.
Among the affected locations was Camp Mystic, a nondenominational Christian summer camp for girls situated in western Kerr County. This camp is located at a hazardous confluence of the South Fork Guadalupe River and Cypress Creek, where floodwaters converged. Both of Camp Mystic's sites fall within the federal floodway or areas deemed to have a 1% or 0.2% annual chance of flooding. As of Sunday evening, officials had not disclosed how many of the Camp Mystic girls were lost in the floods, with at least 10 girls and one counselor reported missing.
Ten minutes north along the South Fork lies Camp La Junta, a boys' camp, which also occupies flood-prone areas. However, several buildings at Camp La Junta are located in lower-risk zones. Wyndham Etheridge, a 14-year-old camper at Camp La Junta, recounted the harrowing experience of waking to find campers from across the site seeking refuge in his cabin as floodwaters rose. They sought safety in the loft of the cabin, but the situation quickly became dire. “At some point we just decided … we could go to bed for a little bit, but then we woke up again to more water,” he shared.
Fortunately, Wyndham's parents received confirmation that their child was safe, but the experience left many campers traumatized. “All those boys were pretty traumatized,” remarked Amy Etheridge, Wyndham’s mother. Camp La Junta announced on Friday that everyone at the camp had been accounted for and was safe.
The recent flooding events in Texas Hill Country highlight the increasing risks of extreme weather due to climate change. As communities continue to face these challenges, awareness of flood zones and preparedness for emergencies will be crucial in safeguarding lives and property.
