In a recent statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that a proposed US plan to end the war in Ukraine might serve as a foundation for future agreements. However, he reiterated his threats to expand Russia’s territorial claims by force unless Ukraine withdraws its military presence from the contested regions. This declaration was made during a press briefing in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, on Thursday.
Putin confirmed that the Kremlin is anticipating a visit from a US delegation led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, scheduled for early next week. The Russian leader expressed the Kremlin's readiness for “serious discussion” regarding the ongoing conflict. Despite this diplomatic overture, the likelihood of reaching a swift resolution seems low, particularly after Putin restated his maximalist demands. He emphasized that the conflict in Ukraine would only conclude “once Ukrainian troops withdraw from the territories they occupy.”
Currently, Russia occupies approximately 20% of the territory that is internationally recognized as part of sovereign Ukraine. This includes nearly the entirety of the Luhansk region and significant portions of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Moscow's demands include the complete surrender of these four regions, which it has claimed through annexation but has not fully conquered.
In recent weeks, Russia has made some tactical gains along the eastern Ukrainian frontline, particularly around the city of Pokrovsk. However, the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based conflict monitoring organization, reported that the current data on Russian military advances suggests that “a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable, and a rapid Russian seizure of the rest of Donetsk Oblast is not imminent.” This analysis is crucial, as the areas under dispute include a “fortress belt” of heavily fortified towns and cities that are vital for Ukrainian security.
Kyiv, along with its European allies, has firmly stated that any territorial concessions are a red line, emphasizing their commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty. Putin's remarks on Thursday indicated a strong resistance to diplomatic flexibility, particularly after US officials, including former President Trump, claimed “tremendous progress” in negotiations to end the war. This statement came after significant pushback from Ukrainian and European officials regarding a 28-point peace plan drafted by the US, which included extensive demands from Russia.
Putin revealed that he expects Witkoff to arrive in Moscow next week to discuss the new draft of the peace plan. The specific details of this draft remain undisclosed. He noted that he had been briefed on the latest discussions, suggesting that the plan could potentially “form the basis for future agreements.” However, Putin was cautious, stating, “It would be impolite of me to speak of final agreements now.”