A potentially catastrophic and life-threatening extreme weather event is set to impact the central states starting Wednesday. This storm system will bring with it strong tornadoes, devastating flooding, heavy snowfall, and high winds. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a high risk for excessive rainfall, the most severe designation available, covering parts of five states from Thursday into Friday. The Weather Prediction Center has labeled this situation as an “extreme flooding scenario” due to its multiday implications, raising concerns for areas that may experience tornadoes while also being in flood zones.
The National Weather Service in Little Rock has warned that “extensive, rare, and at times catastrophic flash flooding is likely if forecast rainfall totals are realized.” Flash flood water levels could reach regions that seldom, if ever, experience flooding. According to the NWS, the anticipated heavy rainfall has a return interval of 25 to 100 years, suggesting that up to three months’ worth of rain could fall in just a few days. Forecasts indicate widespread rainfall amounts between 6 to 12 inches stretching from northeastern Texas to southwestern Ohio by Sunday, with some localized areas potentially exceeding a foot of rain.
This deluge is expected to cause significant river and roadway flooding, with high concerns that some of this flooding could develop rapidly. NOAA has also issued its highest warning level for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, with a Level 5 out of 5 alert impacting over 2 million people across the Mid-South region, presenting a significant risk for numerous tornadoes, some of which could be strong and long-track.
A highway of moisture will fuel intense rain, strong tornadoes, heavy snow, and high winds along a 1,200-mile stretch from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest through the end of the week. The storm that caused tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds in the Plains on Tuesday will continue eastward on Wednesday, coinciding with a tropical moisture plume moving into the Mississippi Valley.
This combination is expected to create a corridor of intense rain and severe thunderstorms beginning Wednesday afternoon and lasting through the night. Flash flooding remains a serious risk for a vast area from southern Arkansas to southern Indiana, which includes major urban centers like Little Rock, Memphis, Nashville, and Louisville, collectively home to over 7 million people. By Thursday morning, the hardest-hit areas could see upwards of 8 inches of rain.
From Thursday into Friday, a second surge of tropical moisture will result in a high risk (Level 4 out of 4) for excessive rainfall affecting parts of northeastern Arkansas, northwestern Tennessee, southwestern Kentucky, and far southeastern Missouri. The risk for extreme rainfall is predicted to shift westward from Friday into Saturday, impacting northeastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and larger areas of Missouri and Illinois. Late Saturday into early Sunday, communities may experience a final surge of intense rain, compounding issues for areas already affected by flooding earlier in the week. Some locations could receive more than a foot of rain by early Sunday, leading to a highly concerning multiday flooding scenario.
The forecast also points to a significant tornado outbreak expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night across the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. The NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare high risk alert for severe thunderstorms, indicating the potential for strong and long-track tornadoes. Supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes are anticipated to develop during the mid- to late afternoon on Wednesday, with the threat persisting into the night.
Over 40 million people are in regions with at least an enhanced risk for severe storms from Wednesday to early Thursday, extending from Dallas to near Detroit. The area with the highest tornado risk includes over 2 million residents in Memphis and Jonesboro, Arkansas. Alarmingly, regions at risk of flooding overlap with those facing tornado threats, raising concerns for compounded damage.
Meanwhile, winter storm warnings are in effect for parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Heavy, wet snow combined with strong wind gusts is expected through Wednesday night, resulting in whiteout conditions and increased risks for downed trees and power outages. In the hardest-hit regions, snowfall may exceed a foot.
Freezing rain is also predicted across Ontario and Quebec, affecting areas north of Toronto still recovering from a recent ice storm. Though the ice accumulation expected on Wednesday won’t be as severe, it will still create hazardous travel conditions. Additionally, a wintry mix will impact northern New York and interior New England from late Wednesday into Thursday, leading to dangerous travel scenarios in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.
