June 1 marks the official start of the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean, and forecasters are sounding the alarm for what could be another year with an above-average number of storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted between 13 to 19 named storms from June 1 to November 30, which is slightly above the average of 14 storms per year based on data from 1991 to 2020.
According to NOAA's May forecast, warmer ocean temperatures are a significant factor contributing to the increased number of storms. Higher temperatures provide more energy to fuel storm activity, leading to greater potential for severe weather. Experts urge individuals to prepare well in advance, even if they reside inland. Professor Michael Bell, who heads Colorado State University's Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software Team, emphasized that it only takes one storm in your vicinity to make this an active season for your area.
Storms, even those that do not escalate into hurricanes, can lead to deadly floods. Experts indicate that water-related hazards are responsible for the majority of fatalities associated with hurricanes making landfall. Jon Porter, AccuWeather's chief meteorologist, highlighted the importance of preparedness, stating that both coastal and inland communities should take proactive measures against flooding and wind damage from storms.
Scientists have noted that climate change is leading to storms that dump more rain and cause extensive damage farther from the coastline. Michael Brennan, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center, echoed this sentiment, stressing the need to communicate effectively with inland communities, particularly those in flood-prone areas. He pointed out that freshwater flooding has been a significant cause of fatalities in recent years.
As the 2023 hurricane season approaches, concerns are mounting over cuts to weather and climate research funding. The Trump administration's actions included the dismissal of hundreds of NOAA employees and proposed significant funding cuts for 2026, jeopardizing essential climate research and satellite programs crucial for weather forecasting. Former employees have voiced their fears that these cuts could hinder advancements in hurricane forecasting, particularly as storms become increasingly dangerous.
The National Weather Service (NWS), a division of NOAA, has already faced a reduction of over 500 staff members due to these cuts and other departures. Brian LaMarre, a former NWS meteorologist in the Tampa Bay area, expressed concerns about the sustainability of the current staffing situation, stating that short-staffed offices could lead to disastrous outcomes when it comes to long-range forecasts.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has reassured the public that NOAA and the NWS are utilizing advanced weather models and hurricane tracking systems to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings. He emphasized the agency's readiness for the upcoming hurricane season, while Brennan reiterated their commitment to supporting emergency management communities nationwide.
Looking ahead, NOAA anticipates that 2025 could see six to ten storms develop into full-blown hurricanes, with winds reaching 74 mph or higher. Additionally, three to five of those hurricanes could be classified as major hurricanes, featuring winds of 111 mph or above. These predictions align closely with forecasts from other agencies, such as Colorado State University, which expects 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, and AccuWeather's forecast of 13 to 18 named storms and seven to ten hurricanes.
The 2024 hurricane season was notably active, with 18 named storms and five hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. This included Hurricane Helene, which resulted in over 200 fatalities and extensive flooding across the southeastern United States, and Hurricane Milton, which caused $34.3 billion in damage due to storm surge and tornadoes in southern Florida.
As we prepare for the hurricane season, it's essential to stay informed. This year's storm names have been selected by the World Meteorological Organization and will be utilized as we track the storms throughout the season. Ensure you have a plan in place and stay updated with reliable sources to navigate the upcoming challenges that hurricane season may bring.
