In my three-plus decades of observing Microsoft, I have witnessed the company make some questionable decisions. However, the transition from Windows 10 to Windows 11 stands out as one of the most misguided moves. This strategy not only harms Microsoft's customers, but it is also detrimental to the company's financial performance, creating a true lose-lose situation.
Back in 2021, as Microsoft's engineers were finalizing what would eventually become Windows 11, the original plan was to implement a straightforward release. This would have allowed the majority of Windows 10 PCs to upgrade easily. However, this plan was abruptly scrapped, leading to a series of complications that will likely prove costly for both businesses and consumers by the end of 2025. This unnecessary turmoil could have been avoided.
To appreciate the gravity of the situation, it is essential to understand Microsoft's long-standing support policies for Windows. Since the mid-1990s, Microsoft has promised to support every new commercial version of Windows for at least 10 years, which includes five years of mainstream support and five years of extended support. This commitment was first formalized with the release of Windows 2000 and later extended to encompass consumer editions in 2012.
What’s important to note here is that this 10-year support timeline pertains to the operating system, not the hardware itself. Thanks to Microsoft’s dedication to backward compatibility, users could generally expect their PCs to run the latest version of Windows for at least 12 to 15 years. For instance, if you purchased a PC with Windows 7 in 2010, you could successfully upgrade it to Windows 8 in 2012, followed by Windows 10 in 2015, with many of those devices still operating smoothly with Windows 10 as late as 2025.
Therefore, the launch of Windows 11 in 2021, accompanied by unexpectedly strict hardware requirements, was a rude awakening for many users. These stringent requirements barred upgrades even on PCs that had been purchased just a few years prior to Windows 11’s release. Consequently, the support lifecycle for hundreds of millions of PCs manufactured between 2016 and 2019 was effectively reduced to well under 10 years.
The rollout of Windows 11 was marked by one of the most rapid development cycles in the operating system's history. Announced in June 2021, it underwent a roughly three-month testing period in an Insider Preview before its official launch in October 2021. Unfortunately, the announcement was marred by technical issues, with many journalists and analysts unable to access the online event.
Reflecting on that chaotic week, I revisited my own coverage from the time, which revealed the tumultuous nature of the launch. The number of updates I had to make as Microsoft executives backtracked on various details was overwhelming. They even attempted to erase the record of confusion they had created, making it difficult to find original documents, even on the Internet Archive.
When Windows 11 was initially announced, it appeared that Microsoft had prepared two sets of system requirements. The first, labeled as the Soft Floor, included detailed CPU compatibility checks and required a TPM 2.0. The second set, known as the Hard Floor, would have permitted any machine designed for Windows 10 to upgrade to Windows 11, albeit with a warning that such upgrades were not recommended.
This Hard Floor would have allowed devices manufactured between 2015 and 2018 to remain functional beyond the end of Windows 10 support in 2025. However, after the announcement, a Microsoft volunteer moderator on the community forum reassured users that unsupported processors were indeed a soft floor requirement. This assurance was later retracted, leading to widespread confusion.
While I lack insider knowledge of the decision-making processes at Microsoft, it seems likely that two factions within the company were at odds over the direction of Windows 11. One group advocated for maintaining the traditional 10-plus-year support lifecycle, while the other favored strict hardware requirements, prioritizing corporate profit over customer satisfaction. Ultimately, the latter group prevailed.
This internal conflict resulted in the erasure of the original requirements from Microsoft’s communications, leading to a significant backlash from customers who felt blindsided by the changes. For over three years, Microsoft maintained a support page detailing how to modify the registry and create installation media for upgrading older Windows 10 PCs. However, these instructions were removed in December 2024, leaving many users without guidance.
The decision to block upgrades for perfectly functional PCs was not only inconsiderate but also an effective strategy for alienating a large segment of their customer base. Currently, an estimated 50% of the Windows 10 installed base, equating to around 500 million PCs, are ineligible for an upgrade to Windows 11. This creates a significant financial opportunity for Microsoft to push businesses either to pay for the Extended Security Updates program or to invest in new hardware.
For consumers and small businesses, the situation is even more precarious. Many users find themselves facing the prospect of losing security updates, which could lead to serious vulnerabilities by the end of the year. In a predictable move, Microsoft recently announced that it would offer one-year ESU subscriptions to consumers with Microsoft accounts who meet certain criteria, but this does little to resolve the underlying issues.
In summary, Microsoft had the opportunity to roll out Windows 11 in a more traditional manner, allowing compatibility with older machines. Instead, they chose a path that has resulted in confusion, frustration, and a significant loss of trust among consumers. The ramifications of this decision will be felt for years to come, raising important questions about the company's priorities and its relationship with smaller customers.
