In a significant oversight, Google has acknowledged that its earthquake early warning system did not adequately alert the public during the catastrophic earthquake in Turkey on February 6, 2023. This failure impacted approximately 10 million people living within 98 miles of the epicenter, who could have received Google's highest-level alert, granting them as much as 35 seconds to seek safety. Instead, only 469 users received the critical "Take Action" warnings during the initial 7.8 magnitude tremor.
While Google reported that around half a million users were notified with a lower-level alert designed for minor shaking, it did not provide the urgent notification needed for a disaster of such magnitude. This less prominent warning fails to override the Do Not Disturb settings on devices, making it ineffective for many users who may have been asleep when the tremors struck.
Despite previous statements from Google claiming that the system had performed satisfactorily, this incident raises serious questions about the reliability of their technology. The Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA) system, which operates primarily on Android devices—accounting for over 70% of mobile phones in Turkey—was supposed to detect seismic activity using data from numerous mobile phones. Tragically, over 55,000 lives were lost, and more than 100,000 people were injured when multiple earthquakes hit the region, catching many off guard as they slept in collapsing buildings.
Google's AEA is designed to identify seismic shaking and issue warnings based on the data it collects. The most severe warning, known as "Take Action," activates a loud alarm on users' phones and overrides Do Not Disturb settings, ensuring that the alert is impossible to ignore. This feature is particularly crucial during significant earthquakes, such as the one experienced in Turkey, where the first quake occurred at 4:17 AM.
The secondary alert, labeled "Be Aware," is intended for lighter shaking and does not disrupt users’ Do Not Disturb settings. Unfortunately, during the Turkey quake, only the serious "Take Action" alerts could have alerted those in danger, especially given the early morning timing of the event.
In the aftermath of the earthquake, the BBC sought to interview users who received notifications, initially aiming to highlight the effectiveness of Google's technology. However, after months of research across various towns and cities affected by the quake, they were unable to locate any individuals who had received the significant "Take Action" alerts before the earthquake struck.
Google's researchers have since published findings in the Science journal, revealing the limitations within their detection algorithms. The system miscalculated the shaking intensity during the first quake, estimating it at only 4.5 to 4.9 on the moment magnitude scale (MMS), while the actual magnitude was 7.8. The second quake was similarly underestimated, with only 8,158 phones receiving the "Take Action" alerts and nearly 4 million users getting the "Be Aware" notifications.
Following the earthquake, Google researchers revised their algorithms and re-simulated the initial quake, which resulted in the generation of 10 million "Take Action" alerts for those most at risk and an additional 67 million "Be Aware" alerts for users located farther from the epicenter. Google emphasized that every earthquake early warning system faces challenges in fine-tuning their algorithms for significant seismic events.
However, critics such as Elizabeth Reddy, Assistant Professor at the Colorado School of Mines, expressed frustration over the delay in addressing these issues, particularly given the tragic loss of life. Reddy stated, "We're not talking about a little event - people died - and we didn't see a performance of this warning in the way we would like."
While Google insists that its system is meant to be a supplementary tool rather than a replacement for national warning systems, concerns remain regarding the over-reliance on technology that has not been fully vetted. Harold Tobin, Director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, emphasized the necessity of transparency in demonstrating how effectively these systems operate. He questioned whether some regions might mistakenly believe that reliance on Google's technology absolves them of their own preparedness efforts.
Google's researchers maintain that post-event analysis has led to significant improvements in the AEA system, which has successfully issued alerts in 98 countries. The BBC has reached out to Google for information on how the AEA performed during the 2025 earthquake in Myanmar but has yet to receive a response.
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