Choosing a champion in men’s college basketball before the season kicks off is a challenging endeavor. The vast number of teams competing across the nation, combined with the single-elimination format of the NCAA Tournament, introduces a level of unpredictability that is unique to this sport. In March, a team can see its entire season come to an abrupt end with just one loss. Historical data shows that only four of the last 15 national champions entered the season with preseason title odds shorter than +1200, with Baylor being the most recent at +800 during the 2020-21 season, as per SportsOddsHistory.com.
As we look ahead to the 2025-26 season, the consensus favorite is Purdue, boasting odds of +850 at ESPN BET, although these odds range from +750 to +950 across different sportsbooks. Following closely are the Houston Cougars, who are often listed as co-favorites alongside Purdue, with odds of +850 at ESPN BET and +950 at DraftKings. Bookmaker Johnny Avello from DraftKings highlights that such odds indicate a wide-open field, making it difficult to pinpoint a clear winner. The presence of many teams in contention signifies that the championship race is far from decided.
Alongside Purdue and Houston, traditional powerhouses like Duke (+1100), UConn (+1400), and Kentucky (+1500) are also expected to be major players in this year’s championship chase. However, Duke has seen its odds slip since the beginning of the offseason, primarily due to the loss of all five starters to the NBA Draft, including top pick Cooper Flagg. Patrick Berbert, a college basketball trader at Caesars, noted that Duke’s odds opened at +850 but were adjusted to +1400 after significant player departures.
Beyond the traditional factors of player departures and graduations, the transfer portal has introduced a new dynamic for sportsbooks. Berbert remarked on the increased difficulty of predicting championship outcomes in today’s landscape, where player movement can drastically alter a team's fortunes. Adjustments to odds must occur constantly, especially as teams acquire new talent through transfers.
Purdue’s odds have seen a significant boost due to offseason hype, rising from +2000 to +750 at Caesars. Meanwhile, BetMGM’s senior trader Michael Ranftle emphasizes that odds are set based on various factors, including returning talent and recruiting success. He notes that the championship race remains wide open, with approximately 15 teams holding odds of +2500 or shorter.
The previous season showcased that underdogs can rise to prominence, as Florida won the national championship despite entering the season with odds of +6000. Their victory was not entirely unexpected, as they had demonstrated strength in both non-conference and SEC play, positioning themselves as a top seed in March Madness 2025.
The trend of unexpected teams becoming title contenders keeps bookmakers vigilant. Berbert has observed that typically, at least one sleeper team emerges each season, catching everyone off guard with strong performances early on. This year, Florida is not likely to surprise anyone after opening at +2500 and now sitting at +1600 for the national title at ESPN BET. The question remains: which team could replicate Florida's early-season surge this year?
One team to watch is BYU, who made a notable Sweet Sixteen run in 2025 and enters the new season with odds of +2200 at ESPN BET. Other historical powerhouses like UCLA (+2800) and Arizona (+4000) could also be primed for a resurgence. Avello suggests that if these teams perform well in early tournaments and conference play, significant adjustments to their odds could follow.
Another team garnering attention is San Diego State, the 2023 national runner-up, currently listed as a longshot at 100-1 on ESPN BET. Their status as BetMGM's largest liability indicates that some bettors believe in their potential for an upset, particularly after receiving substantial bets at those long odds (+6000). Additionally, the St. John's Red Storm, listed at +2000, is also attracting interest in the national championship markets, suggesting they could be a serious contender in the Big East.
The Wooden Award, which has recognized the most outstanding player in men's college basketball since 1977, has seen only four freshmen take home the honor. This season, Braden Smith of Purdue is the frontrunner, with odds at +450 on ESPN BET and even lower at +285 at Caesars. Berbert's team has been proactive in recognizing Smith's potential, believing he has a strong chance to win the award, especially given Purdue's status as a top team and his ability to break the NCAA assists record this year.
While Smith is the clear favorite, there are other freshmen to keep an eye on as well. Kansas’ Darryn Peterson ranks second in the odds at +750, followed closely by Duke’s Cameron Boozer at +1000, both of whom are generating considerable betting interest.
