As we enter Week 5 of the college football season, excitement is in the air for fans and bettors alike. This year marks the eighth consecutive season of our insightful podcast, Big Bets on Campus, where hosts Collin Wilson and Stuckey analyze and predict outcomes for the week's matchups. In this edition, they highlight their two favorite moneyline underdogs for the upcoming games. This week, their picks feature two formidable teams from the Power 4 conferences, both facing off against tough opponents as nearly touchdown underdogs.
Join us as we break down the details of these matchups. We’ll kick things off Saturday afternoon in Seattle before wrapping up with an exciting night game in the Big 12, set in the Heartland. For those looking to increase the thrill, a parlay combining both underdog picks offers a payout surpassing 9-1 at the time of writing. Let’s dive into our college football moneyline underdogs for Week 5.
Looking at the current performance statistics, our betting record stands impressively at 85-129 with a profit of +15.91 Units from 2018-2024. This season, we’re at 4-4, earning +1.8 Units. Overall, that leads us to a cumulative record of 89-133 with a total profit of +17.71 Units.
Collin Wilson is backing Washington on the moneyline at +250 against Ohio State. While this pick may raise some eyebrows, Wilson believes Washington's dynamic duo—running back Jonah Coleman and quarterback Demond Williams Jr.—will challenge Ohio State’s defense with their effective zone-read strategies. Washington boasts an impressive 73% Success Rate on inside zone runs, and they manage to generate explosive plays on around one out of every three attempts on outside zone plays. This is particularly concerning for Ohio State, which currently ranks 118th in Defensive Stuff Rate.
Ohio State’s defensive line has struggled against the run, as evidenced by their performance against Texas. Concerns about their tackling fundamentals have also surfaced, especially with defensive coordinator Matt Patricia's crew allowing a missed tackle rate that has climbed from 10% last year to an alarming 21% this season. The Buckeyes rank 59th in PFF tackling grade as a unit, which could open the door for Washington's playmakers to exploit weaknesses and maintain offensive momentum. Wilson confidently picks Washington to come out on top in this matchup.
Stuckey has his eye on Arizona as they take on Iowa State, placing his bet on the Wildcats at +200. He references Campbell's Law, explaining that every time Iowa State secures a win, it tends to look worse for them in subsequent games. After barely edging out Arkansas State, the Cyclones faced a humiliating defeat against Kennesaw State. In contrast, Kansas State and even South Dakota have not performed well this season, raising further doubts about Iowa State's stability.
Although Iowa State enjoyed a bye week, it’s worth noting that Arizona also had a week off to regroup. Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita has been in excellent form, capable of holding onto the ball longer than most, which could work in their favor against an Iowa State defense that has struggled to generate pressure. Compounding Iowa State's challenges is their kicker situation; both the kicker and kickoff specialist are injured, leaving a true freshman to handle these critical roles. This unpredictability could provide Arizona with better starting field position and potential missed scoring opportunities for Iowa State. With all factors considered, Stuckey confidently backs the Wildcats in this matchup.
As we gear up for an exhilarating Week 5 in the college football season, keep an eye on these moneyline underdogs. Washington and Arizona both have compelling reasons to believe they can pull off upsets against formidable opponents. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a casual fan, these insights aim to enhance your viewing experience and betting strategy.
