The College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee recently convened, equipped with a diverse array of metrics designed to evaluate and differentiate teams vying for a shot at the national championship. During the unveiling of the first set of rankings on Tuesday night, committee chairman Mack Rhoades, who also serves as the athletic director at Baylor, emphasized that the committee relies on both statistical analysis and game tape. “We refer to it as art and science,” Rhoades explained, highlighting the blend of objective metrics and subjective evaluations that shape their decisions.
Despite the introduction of the 12-team playoff system aimed at minimizing subjectivity, the "eye test" remains a significant factor in the committee's deliberations. This traditional method of assessment allows the committee members to evaluate teams based on performance quality and style, beyond what statistics alone can convey. “The art is watching the team on film and tape and how good they are,” Rhoades noted, emphasizing the importance of physicality, offensive and defensive line play, quarterback performance, and the skills of playmakers in their evaluations.
Following the initial rankings, defending champion Ohio State claims the top spot, albeit by a narrow margin over two undefeated contenders, Indiana and Texas A&M. While there's no significant controversy surrounding these rankings, Texas A&M made a compelling case with a thrilling 41-40 victory against Notre Dame earlier in the season, which stands out as one of the most impressive wins in college football this year. Additionally, Texas A&M boasts a tougher schedule compared to their Big Ten counterparts, a critical metric in the selection process. However, Rhoades pointed out that Ohio State and Indiana have demonstrated superior defensive capabilities, a conclusion supported by both statistics and visual assessments.
If the playoff were to commence based on the current CFP rankings, the projected matchups would include:
No. 12 seed Memphis at No. 5 Georgia, with the winner facing No. 4 Alabama. No. 11 seed Virginia at No. 6 Ole Miss, with the winner facing No. 3 Texas A&M. No. 10 seed Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU, with the winner facing No. 2 Indiana. No. 9 seed Oregon at No. 8 Texas Tech, with the winner facing No. 1 Ohio State.The first three teams just missing the cut are Texas, Oklahoma, and Utah.
In contrast, if the playoff were based on the latest AP Top 25 rankings, the matchups would differ slightly:
No. 12 seed Memphis at No. 5 Georgia, winner faces No. 4 Alabama. No. 11 seed Virginia at No. 6 Oregon, winner faces No. 3 Texas A&M. No. 10 seed Notre Dame at No. 7 Mississippi, winner faces No. 2 Indiana. No. 9 seed Texas Tech at No. 8 BYU, winner faces No. 1 Ohio State.The teams ranked just outside the playoff are Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisville.
One intriguing aspect of the rankings is the absence of Memphis in the committee's first top 25, despite being in a position to secure the 12th seed based on their performance. Memphis, representing the American Conference, boasts an impressive record of 8-1 and is currently ranked 22nd by the AP. Their recent victory over South Florida solidified their standing, but the lack of recognition from the committee raises questions about playoff dynamics this season. The elimination of automatic byes for conference champions this year means that Memphis, while a contender, faces stiff competition to secure its spot in the playoff bracket.
Another noteworthy ranking is that of Utah, which, despite a commanding 45-14 victory over Cincinnati, landed at 13th in the CFP rankings. While they are tied for fourth in the Big 12, their schedule has not been particularly challenging. Conversely, Oregon was ranked sixth in the AP poll but fell to ninth in the committee’s evaluation, highlighting the subjective nature of rankings. Upcoming games for these teams are crucial, especially for Oregon, which faces three ranked opponents, potentially impacting their playoff prospects.
Fans should keep an eye on the following matchups leading up to the next CFP rankings:
No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech: The winner will be in a strong position for an at-large bid. No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri: This game will test the significance of strength of schedule. Auburn at No. 16 Vanderbilt: A must-win for Vanderbilt to maintain their playoff aspirations.As the season progresses, the interplay of statistics and subjective analysis will continue to shape the landscape of college football, ultimately determining which teams earn a coveted spot in the College Football Playoff.
