As the NFL regular season progresses, savvy bettors can uncover valuable matchups each week, particularly with anytime touchdown props. In this article, we will analyze the NFL Week 4 anytime touchdown bets for Sunday, September 28. Drawing from previous experience, I have successfully picked anytime touchdown props for every Sunday game last season, finishing with a record of 123-269 (31.4%) and a profit of +44.1 units, which translates to an impressive 11% ROI. If you choose to follow these bets, please remember to implement sound bankroll management. Bets marked as “Verdict” represent 1-unit wagers, while “Sprinkle” indicates a 0.2-unit bet, typically on long-shot odds. Let’s dive into the picks for NFL Week 4.
The matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and the New York Giants offers promising options for anytime touchdown bets. As long as Chargers' wide receivers Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen are listed at +200 or better, they are worth considering. This dynamic duo has showcased impressive chemistry with quarterback Justin Herbert over the past three games, with Allen scoring in all of them and Johnston contributing three touchdowns in two games. Both players have strong potential to score against a Giants' secondary that struggles against the pass, ranking 24th in defensive DVOA and allowing man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL.
On the Giants' side, rookie quarterback Jackson Dart will be making his first start, making Wan’Dale Robinson an enticing option for a touchdown. Robinson, the short-yardage slot receiver, is likely to be Dart's safety net as he navigates his debut. Historically, Robinson's target rate increases when facing zone coverage, which the Chargers employ at a top-five rate.
Verdict: Quentin Johnston +200 | Keenan Allen +225 | Wan’Dale Robinson +425
The Philadelphia Eagles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have faced each other three times in the past two seasons, with the Bucs taking two of those games. The key to betting on touchdown scorers in this matchup is understanding whether the Eagles will lean on their run game or increase their passing volume. The Buccaneers' run defense has been formidable, allowing only two rushing touchdowns and ranking in the top five for rushing yards allowed. However, I anticipate the Eagles to boost their passing attempts this week, making Dallas Goedert at +400 a strong bet. Goedert has historically performed well against the Bucs and was on the field for over 90% of snaps last week, scoring a touchdown.
For the Buccaneers, determining which player to bet on is challenging, especially with Mike Evans out. Chris Godwin may return but could play a limited role. Instead, I like Cade Otton at +350. Otton's target rate increased last season when Evans was sidelined, and he scored twice. With the Eagles' corners likely matched up against other receivers, Otton could seize this opportunity.
Verdict: Dallas Goedert +400 | Cade Otton +350
The New England Patriots are struggling defensively, particularly against wide receivers, having allowed four out of five touchdowns to outside pass-catchers. This scenario positions Tet McMillan as a potential star for the Carolina Panthers; however, his odds at +190 make him less appealing. Instead, I recommend taking a chance on David Moore at +850. Moore played 97% of snaps last week and is likely to benefit from an increased share of targets with WR2 Xavier Legette out.
On the Patriots’ side, Austin Hooper at +600 is a viable option. Hooper is playing over 60% of snaps, and the Panthers have struggled against tight ends, ranking among the worst in targets and touchdowns allowed to that position last season.
Verdict: David Moore +850 | Austin Hooper +600
The game between the Washington Commanders and the Atlanta Falcons presents intriguing possibilities. Commanders' QB Marcus Mariota has been effective in the red zone, and with WR1 Terry McLaurin potentially sidelined, Zach Ertz (+240) becomes a solid option. Ertz excelled against the Falcons last year, scoring two touchdowns in a previous matchup.
On the Falcons' side, I recommend considering Darnell Mooney (+290). He has seen the most targets against man coverage this season, making him a valuable asset as the Falcons look to bounce back offensively.
Verdict: Zach Ertz +250 | Darnell Mooney +290
Both the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions excel in man coverage, which leads me to suggest targeting wide receivers for touchdowns. The Browns' run defense has been formidable, allowing only one rushing touchdown. Given this, I lean towards Jameson Williams (+210) for the Lions, who can exploit the Browns' weaknesses against deep throws.
For the Browns, Cedric Tillman at +320 offers good value. He has scored two touchdowns in three games and is expected to see significant snaps, especially if the game script necessitates passing.
Verdict: Jameson Williams +210 | Cedric Tillman +320
The Houston Texans offense has struggled, failing to score more than 20 points in any game this season. If I were to place a bet on a Texans player, it would likely be Woody Marks at +375 due to his explosive plays compared to Nick Chubb at +155. The Titans have been vulnerable against the run, making this matchup crucial for the Texans to find their rhythm.
On the Titans' side, I suggest betting on QB Cam Ward at +850. His scramble rate has increased, and he is showing a penchant for scoring touchdowns with his legs.
Verdict: Woody Marks +320 | Cam Ward +850
As the New Orleans Saints continue to evaluate their quarterback situation with Spencer Rattler, I anticipate Chris Olave to score a touchdown this week at +280. Olave leads the NFL in total targets and has a favorable matchup against the Bills, who have allowed four of five touchdowns to outside wide receivers.
For the Buffalo Bills, I’m eyeing Ray Davis at +375. His rushing volume tends to spike when the Bills lead by multiple scores, making him a prime candidate for a touchdown in this matchup.
Verdict: Chris Olave +280 | Dalton Kincaid +230 | Ray Davis +375
The Indianapolis Colts have several potential players for touchdown bets in their matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. Given the Rams' vulnerability against the pass, I suggest targeting Tyler Warren at +240 as he leads the team in targets per route run against zone defenses.
For the Rams, Davante Adams at +130 is a solid bet to score. His proficiency in the red zone and consistent target share make him a reliable choice for bettors.
Verdict: Tyler Warren +240 | Davante Adams +130
In the matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the San Francisco 49ers, I recommend placing a bet on Parker Washington at +350, as he has seen a significant increase in targets recently. With injuries affecting the 49ers' roster, Washington could capitalize on this opportunity.
Additionally, a Sprinkle bet on Brian Robinson Jr. at +600 is worth considering, as he could find himself in a favorable position if the 49ers' defensive scheme allows for it.
Verdict: Parker Washington +350 | Sprinkle on Brian Robinson Jr. +600
The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs present unique betting scenarios. I recommend placing a bet on Mark Andrews at +235, as he has rebounded recently and is expected to be a key target against a Chiefs defense struggling to contain tight ends.
For the Chiefs, Kareem Hunt at +220 is appealing, as he has become the primary goal-line back and scored a touchdown last week, showing his reliability in the red zone.
Verdict: Mark Andrews +235 | Kareem Hunt +220
In this game, I believe Caleb Williams at +400 could be a smart bet. His increased scramble rate under pressure makes him a viable option for a rushing touchdown, especially against a Raiders defense that blitzes frequently.
For the Raiders, Tre Tucker at +280 is the most promising option, as he has the potential to score through various means, including end zone carries.
Verdict: Caleb Williams +400 | Tre Tucker +280
