Each week during the 2025 NFL regular season, this article will spotlight teams contending with various funnel defenses and identify fantasy options that could gain an advantage. But what exactly is a funnel defense? In simple terms, it refers to a defense that experiences an unusually high rate of either pass attempts or rushes against them. This analysis will delve into how opponents are performing against these defenses within a neutral game script—defined as a scenario where the scoring margin is within a touchdown. By evaluating the effectiveness of both rush and pass defenses, we can gain insights into potential fantasy implications.
Understanding funnel defenses is not an exact science; unpredictable game scripts can always disrupt our best strategies. However, examining matchups through this lens has proven beneficial in previous seasons, aiding in the often-tedious start-sit decisions we face weekly. As we progress into the season, our analysis will continue to refine, especially as data accumulates. After three weeks of play, we have enough information to pinpoint which teams are likely to act as funnel defenses.
The upcoming matchup between the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions is projected to favor the Lions significantly. With a current spread of 9.5 points favoring Detroit, the Browns are expected to encounter a negative game script, particularly with Joe Flacco at the helm. This scenario often unfolds against teams that are aggressive in their pursuit of victory, contrasting sharply with the conservative tactics displayed by the Packers in Week 3. The Lions will likely focus on neutralizing Cleveland's ground game, which has shown promise following the addition of Quinshon Judkins as their lead back.
Statistically, the Browns rank in the top five for yards after contact per rush over the past two weeks, indicating a strong ground attack. However, Cleveland may struggle to maintain a neutral game script, pushing Flacco into a high-volume passing situation against the Lions’ pass funnel. Detroit has faced a staggering 64 percent neutral game script—ranking seventh in the NFL—suggesting that teams are increasingly opting to attack through the air. Last week, the usually balanced Ravens exceeded their expected pass rate by eight percent against the Lions, highlighting this trend.
In the event of a significant negative script for Cleveland, several players could step up: Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, David Njoku, and Harold Fannin are all in the mix. Fannin leads in targets per route at 24 percent, although he has only run a route on 55 percent of the Browns’ dropbacks. Njoku, on the other hand, participates in 76 percent of the routes. Both tight ends are viable options if the Browns abandon their ground game. Jeudy remains intriguing, as he is accumulating air yards and running extensive routes, suggesting that a heavy passing game could yield fantasy-relevant numbers for him in Week 4.
The Jacksonville Jaguars appear to be establishing themselves as a reliable pass funnel defense this season. They are currently facing the league's seventh highest pass rate over expected and the third highest neutral pass rate at 68 percent. Despite the team's various challenges, their run defense is notably stout, allowing the lowest rate of missed tackles per carry and minimal rush yards after contact. Consequently, opposing teams have shifted to passing more frequently against the Jaguars.
As the San Francisco 49ers prepare for their Week 4 matchup, they may adopt a pass-heavy strategy. With a neutral pass rate of 57 percent this season, expect the 49ers to target players like Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings (if healthy), and Jake Tonges, who has stepped up as the TE1 in George Kittle’s absence. Additionally, Christian McCaffrey continues to be a focal point in the passing game, boasting 31 targets—seven more than any other running back. Tonges could be an intriguing streaming option, though he has only run routes on 65 percent of the Niners’ dropbacks over the past two weeks.
The Kansas City Chiefs face off against the Baltimore Ravens in what appears to be a classic run funnel matchup. Through Week 3, Baltimore has emerged as one of the most prominent run funnel defenses, allowing a league-high three rush yards after contact per attempt. This susceptibility has resulted in a significant ratio of rushing yards against them coming from explosive plays—34 percent of rushing yards allowed by the Ravens have come from big runs, ranking sixth highest in the NFL.
Interestingly, opponents facing the Ravens have recorded the lowest neutral pass rate in the league at 49 percent. This could present an excellent opportunity for Isiah Pacheco; however, he is no longer the clear RB1 in Kansas City, with Kareem Hunt closely trailing in rushing attempts. While Pacheco does lead the backfield in pass routes, he has only run a route on 37 percent of the team’s dropbacks, making his prospects less secure.
Despite the Chiefs leading the league in pass rate over expected, they maintain a 56 percent pass rate in neutral situations, indicating an interest in establishing the run. Against a vulnerable Baltimore front seven, this matchup may provide an opportunity for Pacheco to regain confidence as a starter.
The New York Jets are determined to establish their ground game in Week 4 as they face the Miami Dolphins. The Jets have been vocal about their intention to run the ball frequently, and as of Week 3, they are 6.5 percent below their expected pass rate—the lowest in the NFL. This commitment to the ground game will be put to the test against a Miami defense that has faced a 50 percent run rate from opponents in neutral game scripts, with two of three opponents falling below their expected pass rate.
This matchup presents a crucial opportunity for the Jets to implement their strategy effectively. If they can capitalize on the Dolphins’ vulnerability to the run, it may yield significant benefits for their fantasy players. As the season unfolds, keeping an eye on these funnel defenses will be vital for making informed decisions in your fantasy lineup.
