As we dive into the exciting matchups of NFL Week 4, Erich Richter from The Post shares his insights and predictions for both Sunday and Monday's games. With a mix of statistics and trends, Erich aims to guide bettors through this week's slate, emphasizing the importance of informed decisions in the world of NFL betting.
Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) vs. New York Giants
The Chargers are set to face the Giants, who are making their first start with rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart. Historically, rookie quarterbacks in their mid-season debuts have a record of 26-31-1 against the spread (ATS) from 2009 to 2018. Given this challenging position, my model predicts a score of 27.83 to 16.97 in favor of the Chargers, providing a significant edge for Los Angeles.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings shocked fans with a 48-10 win last week, but this matchup doesn't excite me. Despite some underperformance from the Steelers' defense, my model suggests a tighter spread, predicting a score of 19.88 to 19.57, making Pittsburgh an appealing pick.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
In a game riddled with injuries, the Eagles are currently favored by four points. However, the Buccaneers’ run defense ranks fourth in the league for yards per carry allowed, potentially allowing them to keep the game close. Expect a competitive one-possession outcome.
New Orleans Saints (+16.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
Despite a rocky start to the season (1-2 ATS), I'm willing to back the Saints again. My model sees this spread closer to 10 points, providing a 7.35 percent edge. I believe quarterback Spencer Rattler can keep this matchup competitive in Buffalo.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) vs. Washington Commanders
After a rough outing last week, Michael Penix Jr. and the Commanders face a Falcons team with the eighth-ranked defense in DVOA. I expect Marcus Mariota to shine in this revenge game, leading Atlanta to a victory.
Detroit Lions (-9.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
Both teams are coming off upset wins, but Cleveland's offense, led by Joe Flacco, is struggling with just 4.4 yards per play—29th in the NFL. In contrast, the Lions are tied for second place with 6.3 yards per play. Detroit is set to dominate this matchup.
Houston Texans (-7) vs. Tennessee Titans
Despite Cam Ward's efforts, the Titans' defense is faltering at the line of scrimmage, ranking 25th in pass rush win rate. The Texans are positioned well to capitalize on Tennessee's struggles and should secure the win.
New England Patriots (-5.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
Both teams showed surprising performances last week, with the Panthers achieving a shutout against the Falcons. However, the Patriots have a strong defensive record, allowing the third-fewest yards per carry in the league, making them the smart choice in this matchup.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) vs. San Francisco 49ers
With the 49ers regaining health, the Jaguars come in with the fourth-best defense in DVOA. I believe they can pull off a surprising upset on the road.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Despite a disappointing week, I remain optimistic about the Rams. With key injuries on the Colts’ side, Los Angeles stands out as a top team, ranking in the top 10 for both yards per play and yards per play allowed.
Chicago Bears (+1) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
After a promising offensive performance, the Bears are positioned well against a Raiders defense that has shown weaknesses. Chicago ranks ninth in yards per play, while Las Vegas struggles defensively, making the Bears a solid pick.
Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
This matchup is the highlight of the week, with my model predicting a close game. The Chiefs are bolstered by the return of Xavier Worthy and should capitalize on the Ravens’ secondary struggles to secure an outright win.
Green Bay Packers (-7) vs. Dallas Cowboys
With the Cowboys’ defense struggling, Jordan Love has the opportunity to shine. Although my model predicts a spread of 6.5, I trust the Packers to deliver a strong performance against Dallas.
New York Jets (+3) vs. Miami Dolphins
With Justin Fields potentially returning from concussion protocol, this matchup could be tightly contested. My model forecasts a low-scoring game, with the Jets projected to score 19.10 points against the Dolphins' 19.76, making the spread a valuable betting opportunity.
Denver Broncos (-7.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
With Jake Browning leading the Bengals, the Broncos' defense, ranking ninth in yards per play allowed, should dominate. Expect Denver to control the game and secure a decisive win on Monday night.
Erich's record for last week stood at 4-12, while the season total is currently 14-29. Bet smart and stay informed with expert insights to enhance your NFL betting experience.
Erich Richter is not just an average bettor; he holds a blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a black belt in MMA betting. His expertise has led to substantial profits in player prop markets over the past two seasons. With an impressive return on investment of 30.15 percent since 2022, Erich is a trusted source for NFL betting advice.
