This Saturday, the historic Richmond Raceway will host an electrifying showdown starting at 7:30 p.m. ET, broadcasted live on USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, and the NBC Sports App. After the recent practice and qualifying sessions, the projected finish for the weekend has been updated, promising a thrilling race as the NASCAR Cup Series gears up for the final stretch before the playoff grid of 16 title contenders is finalized.
With only two weekends remaining in the regular season, this race is set to be packed with action and potential chaos. Historically, the last eight races at Richmond have demonstrated an interesting trend: the driver leading the most laps has failed to secure victory. In fact, while this stat was a curse in the past, it has surprisingly turned into a boon in 2025, leading to consistent wins on short tracks. Adding to the drama, the last three races at Richmond have featured late cautions in the final 10 laps, each leading to a thrilling pass for the lead. This creates a perfect storm for a finish that could dramatically alter the playoff landscape.
One thing is certain: Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) is likely to set the pace during this race. According to Racing Insights’ metrics, both Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell consistently rank among the top three contenders, and for good reason. JGR has clinched an impressive 10 wins in the last 18 Richmond races, positioning them among the elite teams in the track's storied history. Hamlin boasts six top-two finishes in his last eight starts at Richmond, while Bell, still seeking his first win at the 0.75-mile oval, has finished outside the top 10 only twice in nine attempts. Considering JGR's strong performance on short tracks this year, they are poised to dominate the evening.
Don't overlook Chase Briscoe, who leads the series in pole awards this season. While his career numbers at Richmond may not be stellar, his recent performances have shown significant improvement. Briscoe is the only driver to secure a top 10 finish in every short-track race this year, and just weeks ago, he led an impressive 81 laps at Iowa. With a formidable trio from Hendrick Motorsports — including Chase Elliott, William Byron, and Kyle Larson — predicted to finish in the top five, the stage is set for an intense battle among the racing elite.
Several other drivers could disrupt the expected outcome and join the winner’s circle if chaos ensues in the final laps.
Alex Bowman: With a chance to become the fourth driver to win in his 350th Cup Series start, Bowman is a former victor at Richmond. Despite mixed results recently, he boasts a solid average finish of 9.3 over the last nine races this year, the best among full-time drivers.Ty Gibbs: Gibbs is the lone driver at his organization without a win yet. Despite only one top-10 finish in five Richmond starts, his equipment makes him a formidable threat as he seeks to make history — the last first-time winner at Richmond was Kasey Kahne in 2005.Brad Keselowski: As a driver and co-owner at RFK Racing, Keselowski has shown promising form recently, with six finishes of 11th or better in the last eight races. With two wins and an impressive track record at Richmond, he could shake up the playoff standings.Austin Dillon: The defending winner at Richmond, Dillon has seven top-10 finishes at this track. Notably, three of his five Cup Series wins have come on the final two regular-season tracks, making him a dark-horse candidate for a surprise victory.Utilizing advanced statistical analysis, Racing Insights combines data from current track conditions, track type, recent performances, team statistics, and pit crew efficiency to project race winners and provide comprehensive race results. These insights will be updated on race day, incorporating the latest practice and qualifying results, ensuring that fans and teams have the most accurate information heading into this pivotal race.
