The Athletic provides live coverage of the highly anticipated 2025 Men’s March Madness, showcasing the excitement and unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament. In a thrilling matchup in Cleveland, the Robert Morris Colonials faced off against the formidable Alabama Crimson Tide. With less than eight minutes left in the game and the Colonials trailing by just one point, Robert Morris guard Amarion Dickerson made a sensational defensive play. He swatted away a shot attempt from Alabama guard Mark Sears, sending Sears sprawling to the floor as the ball flew out of bounds.
In a moment reminiscent of Allen Iverson's iconic step over Tyronn Lue, Dickerson stepped over Sears, flexing for the crowd. The arena erupted with roars of approval, filled with Robert Morris diehards who had traveled from Pittsburgh, alongside new fans rallying for the underdog. This surge of support spurred the 15-seed Colonials to seize a one-point lead over the 2-seed Crimson Tide, igniting hopes for a classic David vs. Goliath upset—a narrative that forms the backbone of March Madness lore.
However, Alabama quickly responded, launching a decisive 6-0 run that secured a comfortable nine-point victory. This outcome marked a significant development in the NCAA Tournament, as it was the first time since 2017 that no teams seeded lower than No. 12 advanced to the tournament's Saturday games. Only five double-digit seeds managed to progress in the first round: two No. 10s, one No. 11, and two No. 12s, with Colorado State even being a betting favorite among the 12-seeds. This statistic ties the record for the fewest first-round wins by double-digit seeds since 2007.
The 2023 tournament had a similar outcome, but it also featured remarkable upsets, such as No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson defeating No. 1 Purdue and No. 15 Princeton advancing to the Sweet 16. Previous years, including 2017 and 2015, also saw chalky first rounds. The lack of close games further dampened the excitement of this year's early rounds, with only four of the 32 first-round games decided by two possessions or less—the fewest since 1997.
This leads to a pressing question: Is this a one-time anomaly, or does it reflect broader trends in college sports? Factors such as the influence of power conferences, the impact of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals, and the rise of the transfer portal could be at play. Analysts C.J. Moore and Brendan Marks from The Athletic had anticipated this trend in their bracket predictions, suggesting that advanced metrics indicated a top-heavy field of teams. This trend was evident on the court, but it may bode well for the subsequent weekends of the tournament, potentially setting up exciting matchups.
Historically, similar top-heavy tournaments have led to thrilling contests in later rounds, indicating this could simply be part of the natural cycle of college basketball. Despite this, many fans and analysts lament the absence of those thrilling early-round upsets that make March Madness so beloved. Memorable moments like FDU’s victory over Purdue, UMBC’s historic win over Virginia, and Lehigh’s upset of Duke are the stories that resonate with fans and create lasting memories.
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo, who experienced a stunning upset by 15-seed Middle Tennessee in 2016, shared his mixed feelings about the tournament's unpredictability. “Sometimes I hate them,” he remarked, “But most of the time, I love them. Everybody loves Cinderella, everybody loves the underdog.” His team, the 2-seed Spartans, managed to avoid a similar fate by converting a narrow five-point halftime lead over 15-seed Bryant into a commanding 25-point victory, rounding out an otherwise predictable round of 64.
When asked about the overall predictability of the first round, Izzo, now in his 27th straight tournament, brushed off concerns, highlighting the success of the 12 seeds over the 5 seeds. His experience in the tournament has taught him that surprises can still happen. March Madness remains one of the most exhilarating events in sports, even if this year's early rounds lacked the typical drama. The hope is that as the tournament progresses, the excitement will rekindle, offering fans the unexpected twists and turns that are the hallmark of college basketball's grandest stage.
Despite the early predictability, one of the most electrifying moments of this tournament occurred just hours before Michigan State took the court in Cleveland, when Robert Morris challenged Alabama, pushing the narrative of the underdog to the forefront of March Madness 2025.
