George Kittle has established himself as an all-time great tight end in the NFL, boasting exceptional performance metrics that set him apart from his peers. Over the course of his illustrious career with the San Francisco 49ers, Kittle has achieved both the best receiving grade and the best run-blocking grade among tight ends. His unique skill set makes him an essential player to watch as the season unfolds.
With Kellen Moore taking the helm as the offensive coordinator, the New Orleans Saints are likely to see significant changes that could benefit players like Chris Olave. Moore's offensive schemes have historically emphasized slot receivers, a trend that translates into increased fantasy points. This season, Olave stands poised to take on the primary slot receiver role, which could elevate his performance in fantasy leagues.
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As of September 2, Kittle's average draft position (ADP) is 3.10, which reflects his high value in fantasy drafts. Over the last eight years, he has crafted a Hall of Fame-worthy career, ranking in the top six for fantasy points per game for each of the last seven seasons. His impressive 94.3 receiving grade over this period is the highest among all tight ends, narrowly surpassing that of Travis Kelce, who has run nearly 2,000 more routes than Kittle.
Additionally, Kittle boasts an 84.5 run-blocking grade, making him a dual-threat player. Over the past three seasons, he has also ranked first in various metrics, including yards per route run against different types of coverage. Despite a history of injuries, Kittle has played at least 14 games in seven of his eight seasons and finished first in fantasy points per game last year, although he ranked third in total fantasy points due to missing two games.
The 49ers' addition of Luke Farrell, primarily a run-blocking tight end, may allow for a higher utilization of 12 personnel, which could enhance Kittle's opportunities. However, the performance of the wide receivers will significantly impact Kittle’s target rate this season. In previous years, Kittle had to compete with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel Sr. for targets, which limited his potential. This year, changes in the roster dynamics, including Samuel's departure, could lead to more opportunities for Kittle.
Kittle’s targets could also be influenced by how well Aiyuk recovers from injury. If Aiyuk struggles and rookie Ricky Pearsall does not step up, Kittle might see an increase in his target rate, further solidifying his status as a top-three fantasy tight end.
With an ADP of 7.08, Chris Olave was the 11th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. As a rookie, he quickly emerged as a top receiving option, finishing the season with over 1,000 receiving yards despite injuries to key teammates like Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry. In 2023, even with a quarterback change to Derek Carr, Olave maintained impressive numbers, showcasing his potential to be a fantasy star.
However, concerns regarding his concussion history are valid, with Olave having suffered multiple concussions that could impact his availability. His target rate over the last three seasons ranks among the best in the league, and with Moore's focus on slot receivers, Olave is well-positioned for a breakout season.
Jordan Mason, now with the Minnesota Vikings, has the potential to carve out a significant role following his impressive performances as a backup with the 49ers. After being undrafted in 2022, Mason quickly proved himself, averaging 6.0 yards per carry and demonstrating his ability to make explosive plays. With Aaron Jones Sr. aging and battling injuries, Mason could step into a more prominent role, especially in early-down and goal-line situations.
Trevor Lawrence experienced a peak in fantasy value during the 2022 season but faced challenges in 2023, including a shoulder injury that impacted his performance. As he enters 2024 under a new offensive system led by Liam Coen, there is optimism for a resurgence. Lawrence's ability to adapt to this new system could be crucial for his fantasy production, particularly with new weapons in the receiving corps.
In conclusion, as the fantasy football season progresses, keeping an eye on these pivotal players — George Kittle, Chris Olave, Jordan Mason, and Trevor Lawrence — could yield significant rewards. With the right strategies and insights, fantasy managers can navigate their drafts and lineups effectively.
