The fantasy football playoffs are just around the corner, and every game is critical for playoff positioning. With that in mind, here are my top recommendations for starts and fades in Week 10, ensuring you maximize your chances of success.
Start: Daniel Jones, Colts
After a rough outing against the Steelers, where he turned the ball over five times, Daniel Jones managed to salvage his day with 17.1 fantasy points. The oddsmakers are optimistic, giving the Colts a high implied team total of 27.5 points. Jones currently ranks seventh in expected points added (EPA) and eighth in completion percentage over expected (CPOE), despite his Week 9 struggles. He’s also a valuable asset for fantasy managers with his propensity for rushing touchdowns, ranking third among quarterbacks in carries inside the five-yard line.
Start: Matthew Stafford, Rams
Matthew Stafford is at the helm of a Rams offense that is embracing the passing game, boasting top-five rankings in pass rate over expected and neutral situation pace. Facing a San Francisco defense that ranks 25th in EPA per dropback allowed, Stafford is primed for a big game. With a projected team total of 27 points from Vegas, he’s a strong start for fantasy owners this week.
Sit: Michael Penix, Falcons
Michael Penix has shown improvement lately, especially after a three-touchdown game against the Patriots. However, facing the Colts in Germany could pose a challenge, as Indy ranks ninth in EPA per dropback allowed. Penix has yet to finish better than QB10 in any week this season and struggles to maintain a high ceiling, averaging only nine rushing yards per game.
Sit: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have struggled with injuries to key players, leading to a significant drop in their passing rate. Their upcoming matchup against the Texans—who lead the league in EPA per dropback allowed—could further hinder Lawrence’s performance. With the Texans allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, it’s best to look for alternatives this week.
Start: Rico Dowdle, Panthers
The Panthers have shifted their focus to Rico Dowdle, who significantly out-carried Chuba Hubbard in Week 9. With 130 rushing yards and two touchdowns, Dowdle is poised to shine as a 5.5-point favorite against the Saints this week. His 74 percent snap share and 80 percent carry share indicate he’s a top-five fantasy running back option.
Start: Jaylen Warren, Steelers
Jaylen Warren has taken control of the Steelers’ backfield, handling 78 percent of the team’s carries over his last three games. With consistent touches and the added benefit of inside-the-five carries, Warren is a solid start for those looking for running back depth this week.
Sit: Tyrone Tracy, Giants
Tyrone Tracy's role has diminished as Devin Singletary has emerged as the Giants’ lead back. With limited carries and snaps, Tracy is unlikely to make a significant impact against the 49ers, making him a candidate to sit this week.
Sit: Jacory Croskey-Merritt
While Jacory Croskey-Merritt has shown potential, his recent snap share has dipped below 50 percent, and with the absence of Jayden Daniels, his fantasy prospects look bleak. In a challenging matchup against the Lions, Croskey-Merritt may find it hard to contribute meaningfully.
Start: Zay Flowers
Zay Flowers is set to benefit from Lamar Jackson's return, as he received a robust 24 percent target share. With a favorable matchup against the Vikings, who predominantly use man coverage, Flowers is in a prime position to rebound and should be started with confidence.
Start: Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals
With Jacoby Brissett now the starting quarterback for the Cardinals, Marvin Harrison Jr. has seen a spike in production. Brissett’s ability to distribute passes effectively makes Harrison a compelling option this week, especially after a career-high in receptions last game.
Sit: Jameson Williams, Lions
Despite a modest performance in Week 9, Jameson Williams has not shown enough consistency to warrant a start. With limited targets and a tough matchup against a depleted Commanders squad, it’s advisable to sit Williams this week.
Sit: Keenan Allen, Chargers
Keenan Allen's role has diminished in recent weeks with the emergence of Oronde Gadsden. With a significant drop in route participation and target share, Allen may not be a reliable option this week against a competitive opponent.
Start: Dalton Kincaid, Bills
Dalton Kincaid has proven his worth, leading all tight ends in yards per route run. With impressive efficiency metrics and a favorable role in the Bills’ offense, Kincaid is a must-start in Week 10.
Start: Harold Fannin Jr., Browns
Despite David Njoku's presence, Harold Fannin Jr. has emerged as a key player in the Browns' passing attack, logging significant snaps and a strong target share. He’s a solid option for tight end needy teams this week.
Sit: Mark Andrews, Ravens
Mark Andrews has seen a decline in targets with Isaiah Likely starting to earn more looks. With a diminished route rate and target share, Andrews may struggle to produce adequate fantasy points this week.
Sit: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers
After a standout performance in Week 7, Pat Freiermuth has reverted to low target and route shares. Given his recent lack of production, he’s better suited for the waiver wire than starting lineups this week.
As the fantasy football playoffs draw near, make sure to evaluate your team and adjust your lineup accordingly. Best of luck in Week 10!
