The College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee is set to unveil its first rankings of the season on Tuesday evening. As fans eagerly await this announcement, they are left to ponder whether the committee will align with the prevailing opinion that defending champion Ohio State is currently the best team in the nation. Alternatively, the committee might recognize another undefeated team, such as Indiana, Texas A&M, or BYU, as deserving of the top spot.
This inaugural ranking will significantly influence the narrative surrounding the upcoming 12-team playoff, the second iteration of which is set to commence on December 7. The playoff will kick off on December 19-20, featuring four first-round games hosted at the campuses of the higher-seeded teams. The excitement will culminate with the national championship game on January 19 at Hard Rock Stadium, just outside Miami.
With just four weeks remaining in this unpredictable college football season, Ohio State emerges as a 2-1 favorite to secure the championship, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. Indiana follows closely at 5-1, while Alabama is listed at 7-1. The rankings released by the CFP will provide a clearer picture of how teams are evaluated and ranked.
This season introduces a new “straight seeding” model, which means that teams will be placed directly in the bracket according to their rankings, irrespective of conference championships. Nonetheless, it is essential to note that five conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff. In the latest Associated Press Top 25, only one team from the Atlantic Coast Conference, Virginia, is positioned in the top 12, while no team from the Group of 5 leagues is within striking distance of that ranking.
This scenario implies that the initial playoff bracket could feature teams ranked lower than those in the current Top 25, potentially excluding programs ranked 11th and 12th. Presently, the first teams on the outskirts include Oklahoma (No. 11), Texas (No. 13), and Louisville (No. 14), while Virginia and Memphis (No. 22) could enter ahead of these traditional powerhouses.
As we look ahead to the early rankings, here are some projections:
1 Seed - Ohio State: The Buckeyes boast an undefeated record and a crucial season-opening victory over Texas. Their strong performance in metrics that the committee values, such as “relative total offense” and “relative total defense,” further solidifies their position. However, a challenging game against Michigan on November 29 looms, where they face a team that has bested them four times in a row.2-4 Seeds - Indiana, Texas A&M, Alabama: The committee considers more than just win-loss records, yet the unblemished records of Indiana and Texas A&M are hard to overlook. Texas A&M recently secured a thrilling 41-40 victory against Notre Dame, while Alabama continues to improve despite an early loss to Florida State.5-8 Seeds - Georgia, Ole Miss, BYU, Oregon: The committee’s decision regarding BYU in relation to teams from the Southeastern Conference will be telling. With a key match against Texas Tech approaching, BYU has the opportunity to strengthen its case for a top seed.9-12 Seeds - Notre Dame, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Virginia: Notre Dame needs to navigate its way through the rest of the season, while Texas Tech can make a statement against BYU. Oklahoma must secure a victory against Alabama to maintain its position, and Virginia aims to capitalize on a favorable schedule.Currently, Memphis is the sole Group of 5 team represented in the AP Top 25, while Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech have emerged as surprising success stories this season. On the other hand, Texas, once the top-ranked team at the start of the season, has fallen short of expectations. However, if the Longhorns can secure three or four more victories, their path to the playoff remains viable.
As the season unfolds and the rankings are revealed each Tuesday leading up to December 7, the landscape of college football will continue to evolve, presenting thrilling matchups and potential surprises in the quest for the national championship.
