As the No. 1 seeds for the women's NCAA tournament appear to be firmly established, the anticipation for Selection Sunday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) continues to build. With a bubble that lacks depth and drama, many crucial decisions for the NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Committee have already been made. However, finalizing the official bracket will still prove to be a complex task, as demonstrated by weeks of rigorous bracketology analysis.
The upcoming bracket announcement is expected to feature South Carolina, UCLA, USC, and Texas as the headliners, with UConn closely following as a top contender. This season has showcased a competitive landscape, as teams like the Gamecocks, Bruins, Longhorns, and Notre Dame have all held the No. 1 ranking at various points. This unpredictability highlights the open race for the 2025 NCAA championship in Tampa, Florida.
One of the most significant aspects to monitor on Selection Sunday will be the geographical placement of the top seeds. This will greatly influence the matchups teams face on their journey to Tampa. Although the top four seeds were likely decided prior to Championship Sunday on March 9, the outcomes of the SEC and Big Ten title games have shifted their order. The committee's current ranking will determine potential matchups deep into the tournament.
For instance, Texas's loss to South Carolina in the SEC championship game may have shifted them from the top seed to the fourth spot. If this is confirmed, the Longhorns will remain in the Birmingham Regional but could now face UConn as a No. 2 seed, rather than a less experienced program like TCU. This shift emphasizes the importance of matchups as Texas transitions from playing a team with limited NCAA tournament experience to one with an extensive history.
Both UCLA and USC are anticipated to secure No. 1 seeds, allowing them to compete in the Spokane Regional in separate brackets. However, Notre Dame’s struggles at the end of the regular season and in the ACC tournament appear to have pushed them back, potentially requiring a longer trip to the Northwest to join one of the L.A. schools. While the committee's role is to select and properly seed the 68 participating teams, their decisions will invariably shape the narratives and matchups that unfold during the tournament.
Championship Week has major ramifications for the top 16 seeds. Teams like Alabama, Tennessee, and Maryland boast more Quad 1 wins than Baylor, yet the Bears' recent performance in reaching the Big 12 tournament finals has propelled them into the top 16. The committee's assessment of teams like Ohio State, which has a strong number of wins against other tournament contenders, will also play a critical role in determining the final bracket.
The competition for the final spot in the tournament field appears to come down to Princeton and Virginia Tech. This decision may prove to be one of the toughest the committee faces. Following last year's success where the Ivy League secured two bids, this season could see three teams from the conference making the leap from Ivy Madness to March Madness.
Both Princeton and Virginia Tech have resumes with notable gaps. Virginia Tech has struggled in Quad 1 games, while Princeton holds a slight edge in their NET ratings. However, the Hokies' recent victories against stronger teams like Louisville and Cal may bolster their case. Despite this, Virginia Tech's late-season struggles could weigh heavily in the committee's deliberations.
As we approach Selection Sunday, the decisions made by the NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Committee will significantly impact the landscape of the tournament. With a balance of established programs and emerging contenders, the journey to the 2025 championship promises to be filled with excitement, drama, and intriguing matchups.
