As you gear up for your fantasy football drafts, it’s crucial to identify not only the players you want to target but also the fantasy football draft landmines you should avoid. Our expert analysts have compiled a list of players they consider overvalued or otherwise risky for this fantasy football draft season. Here’s a detailed look at who to steer clear of, along with insights from our analysts: Fitz, DBro, Erickson, and Joe.
David Montgomery (RB – DET) is a player that Fitz recommends avoiding this season. Concerns surround the Detroit Lions offense, especially with the departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and the retirement of center Frank Ragnow. Additionally, the emergence of Jahmyr Gibbs adds another layer of uncertainty. While the division of labor between Gibbs and Montgomery has been effective, Gibbs' explosive performance—averaging 5.6 yards per carry and 8.2 yards per target in 2024—raises questions about Montgomery's potential for touchdowns. With the Lions having ranked fifth in scoring in 2023 and first in 2024, any offensive struggles in 2025 could lead to disappointing production for Montgomery.
Another player to avoid is Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA). Drafting him as a top-15 or even top-20 wide receiver in 2025 is a risky proposition. Hill experienced a significant decline in 2024, even before considering his off-field issues and trade demands. With Tua Tagovailoa under center during weeks 8-16, Hill ranked as the WR24 in fantasy points per game. His metrics, such as yards per route run, target share, and separation, suggest that expecting him to perform as a strong mid-range WR2 is overly optimistic. If Hill continues to decline or if Jaylen Waddle surpasses him in the Dolphins' target hierarchy, he could become a liability for your fantasy team.
When it comes to Deebo Samuel (WR – WAS), Erickson points out the potential for early-season production, especially with Terry McLaurin’s ongoing contract dispute. However, Samuel's history of underwhelming performance—averaging just 8.5 PPG in 2024 while finishing outside the top-40 wide receivers—raises red flags. Despite some early opportunities, Samuel's recent performance was poor, with only one game surpassing 22 receiving yards in his last seven outings. His injury history and age are also concerning factors, making him a risky pick, particularly if his average draft position (ADP) continues to rise.
Lastly, Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF) is another player Joe advises against drafting this season. Coming off a major knee surgery, Aiyuk may struggle to regain his form quickly, which is critical in the fast-paced world of fantasy football. With significant competition for targets from players like Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings, Aiyuk's potential for consistent production appears limited. Without a solid floor or explosive upside, investing in Aiyuk may not be worth the risk this draft season.
For more comprehensive insights and additional players to avoid, check out our analysts' complete lists of fantasy football picks to avoid this season. Preparing for your fantasy football draft with the right knowledge can make all the difference in your league success.
