UK scientist Dr. Robin George Andrews, a renowned volcanologist, has issued a stark warning about the looming threat of the city-killer asteroid 2024 YR4. The asteroid, which is hurtling towards Earth, poses a significant risk with a one in 43 chance of impact by the year 2032.
If asteroid 2024 YR4 strikes Earth, the consequences could be catastrophic, particularly if it impacts land. The asteroid's size, comparable to the Leaning Tower of Pisa, could lead to the devastation of entire cities. Conversely, an ocean impact would likely result in minimal effects. Discovered in December 2024, YR4 is currently rated 3 out of 10 on the Torino Scale, indicating a need for caution.
Nasa is taking proactive steps to monitor asteroid 2024 YR4 by deploying the James Webb Space Telescope. The asteroid will reach its brightest in March 2025, coinciding with the first round of Nasa's planned observations. Follow-up studies are scheduled for May when YR4 moves away from the Sun, marking the last opportunity to observe it until its return in 2028.
Dr. Andrews highlighted the challenges of deflecting asteroids, referencing the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) conducted in 2022. Although successful in altering the course of a 580-ft-wide asteroid, Dr. Andrews cautioned that not all asteroids can be deflected easily. Many asteroids, including Dimorphos, are composed of loosely bound boulders, making them susceptible to fragmentation rather than deflection.
It's crucial to ensure that any attempt to deflect an Earthbound asteroid does not inadvertently fragment it. Dr. Andrews explained, "Hitting them just right can produce a debris-like thrust effect, but if you hit them too hard, you'll shatter them." He likened this to turning a cannonball into a shotgun spray, which could result in chaotic and potentially destructive outcomes.
Moreover, the DART mission did not provide as much deflection as one might expect. The change in velocity imparted to Dimorphos was a mere 2.7mm/s. This demonstrates the complexity and precision required in asteroid deflection efforts.
As the world watches and waits, the potential impact of asteroid 2024 YR4 remains a pressing concern for scientists and researchers. Continued observation and advancements in deflection technology will be crucial in mitigating the risks posed by such celestial threats.
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