A section of a Soviet-era spacecraft is anticipated to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere this week after being stranded in orbit for over fifty years. Launched in 1972, Kosmos 482 was part of an ambitious mission aimed at exploring Venus. However, the spacecraft never managed to break free from low Earth orbit and eventually fragmented into four distinct pieces, as reported by NASA.
NASA has indicated that one of these fragments, believed to be the lander probe, is expected to re-enter the atmosphere around May 10. There is a possibility that at least part of this debris could survive the intense journey through the atmosphere without completely burning up. While the exact details of the re-entry remain uncertain, including potential landing locations, experts emphasize that the likelihood of significant damage is minimal. In fact, according to Mr. Stijn Lemmens, Senior Space Debris Mitigation Analyst at the European Space Agency, the odds of experiencing an impact from this piece of space debris are slimmer than winning the lottery.
The lander capsule itself is a resilient, spherical object, measuring approximately one meter in diameter and weighing nearly half a tonne. Designed to endure the extreme conditions of Venus's atmosphere, it features a robust heat shield and a durable structure. This engineering makes experts optimistic about its chances of surviving an uncontrolled descent through Earth's atmosphere.
While the re-entry of space debris is not uncommon, the specifics can vary significantly. Mr. Lemmens noted that human-made objects re-enter the Earth's atmosphere quite frequently, with larger spacecraft doing so weekly and smaller objects daily. Typically, these objects burn up upon re-entry, preventing any risk of impact. For instance, in 2022, China's Long March 5B booster re-entered over the Indian Ocean, while the Tiangong-1 space station mostly disintegrated over the Pacific Ocean in 2018.
Currently, Kosmos 482 is under close observation by various international space agencies. Mr. Lemmens emphasized the importance of designing future spacecraft with capabilities to safely remove themselves from orbit. Controlled re-entries would enable precise predictions of landing areas, significantly reducing the risk of debris impacting populated regions. This proactive approach is vital for protecting both people and property while also addressing the environmental concerns associated with space debris.
