A spacecraft from the Soviet era, designed to explore Venus in the 1970s, is predicted to make an uncontrolled re-entry to Earth shortly. This event is generating significant interest among space enthusiasts and experts alike. The spacecraft, known as Kosmos 482, is expected to crash back to Earth around May 10, according to Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek, who specializes in space debris tracking.
Kosmos 482 weighs approximately half a ton and is made of metal, raising questions about where it might land and how much of it will survive the intense conditions of re-entry. Langbroek estimates that if the spacecraft remains intact, it will enter the atmosphere at a speed of about 150 mph (or 242 km/h). Despite the potential risks, Langbroek reassures that there is no cause for major concern. “While not without risk, we should not be too worried,” he stated in an email.
The size of the spacecraft plays a crucial role in assessing the risk posed by its re-entry. Langbroek notes that even if Kosmos 482 does not break apart during its descent, the risk of it hitting someone or something is minimal. “The risk is similar to that of a random meteorite fall, several of which happen each year. You run a bigger risk of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime,” he explained.
The Soviet Union launched Kosmos 482 in 1972 as part of a series of missions aimed at exploring Venus. However, a rocket malfunction prevented it from escaping Earth’s orbit, and most of the spacecraft fell back to Earth within a decade. Interestingly, experts believe that the landing capsule, a spherical object measuring about 3 feet (1 meter) in diameter, has been orbiting the planet in a highly elliptical path for the last 53 years and is gradually descending in altitude.
There is a possibility that the spacecraft, which weighs over 1,000 lbs (nearly 500 kg), could survive its re-entry. It was originally constructed to endure the harsh conditions of a descent through Venus's thick carbon dioxide atmosphere. However, experts express doubts regarding the functionality of its parachute system after so many years, and the heat shield may also be compromised.
Jonathan McDowell, an expert at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, commented that it would be preferable for the heat shield to fail, as this would lead to the spacecraft burning up during its atmospheric dive. “If the heat shield holds, it’ll re-enter intact and you have a half-ton metal object falling from the sky,” he cautioned.
The spacecraft could potentially re-enter anywhere between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude, with possible landing zones reaching as far north as London and Edmonton in Alberta, Canada, down to South America’s Cape Horn. However, given that a significant portion of the Earth’s surface is covered by water, Langbroek suggests that “the chances are good it will indeed end up in some ocean.”
As we await the re-entry of Kosmos 482, the event serves as a reminder of the enduring legacy of space exploration and the unpredictable nature of space debris. The world will be watching closely as this relic from the past makes its final descent to Earth.
