Sea level rise is set to displace millions of people from coastal regions, even with a global temperature increase of just 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a new study published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment. This alarming research highlights that even the current levels of global warming could result in several feet of sea level rise by the century's end, creating severe repercussions for those living near coastlines.
The study’s authors caution that at just 1.2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average—our current average warming level—the world could face catastrophic sea level rise and mass migration. Jonathan Bamber, a glaciologist at the University of Bristol and co-author of the study, stated, “You’re going to see massive land migration on scales that we’ve never witnessed since modern civilization,” as reported by CNN.
The primary cause of rising sea levels is the rapid melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, a phenomenon that has quadrupled in pace since the 1990s and now represents the largest contributor to sea level elevation. The research team from the U.K. and the U.S. utilized historical climate data, including warm periods spanning up to 3 million years ago, alongside recent trends in ice loss and climate models, to forecast future changes in ice sheets under various climate scenarios.
Historically, approximately 15,000 years ago, at the conclusion of the last Ice Age, the rate of sea level rise was ten times greater than what we are experiencing today. During the last period when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were comparable to today's, around 3 million years ago, sea levels were between 33 to 66 feet (10 to 20 meters) higher than present levels. This indicates a troubling trend, as the study suggests that multiple meters of sea level rise are inevitable, even if we aggressively reduce fossil fuel emissions to meet the Paris Agreement's target of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The authors of the study express concern that the target of 1.5 degrees Celsius may soon be out of reach. Alarmingly, they find that even at 1.2 degrees Celsius, we could witness several meters of sea level rise. The researchers suggest that the safe threshold for global temperature increase is likely below 1 degree Celsius, although further studies are required to pinpoint the actual tipping point. Currently, we are on a trajectory toward a temperature rise of up to 2.9 degrees Celsius, at which stage the complete collapse of ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica becomes virtually certain, potentially leading to a staggering 40 feet (12 meters) of sea level rise.
As it stands, approximately one billion individuals reside within 32 feet of sea level, with around 230 million people living within just 3 feet. Chris Stokes, a climate scientist at Durham University and lead author of the study, emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating, “People need to be aware that sea level rise is likely to accelerate to rates that are very difficult to adapt to—rates of one centimeter per year are not out of the question within the lifetime of our young people.”
Last year marked the first time the average global temperature reached 1.5 degrees Celsius, although it has not yet stabilized at this level. However, there is still an opportunity to mitigate these effects. The study's authors advocate for immediate and decisive climate action to curb the most severe consequences of sea level rise—emphasizing that every inch counts in this critical fight.
