In a bold move, Venezuela is testing President Trump's oil blockade by allowing two crude-laden tankers to depart from its ports, one of which is under military escort. Interestingly, neither of these vessels is sanctioned by the U.S., meaning they technically are not in violation of Trump's blockade. This development is significant as it escalates the ongoing tension between Trump and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in the Caribbean region.
This latest maneuver in the ongoing cat-and-mouse game between Trump and Maduro has major implications, particularly with millions of barrels of oil at stake. The situation is increasingly precarious, with the possibility of a military conflict surfacing as a real concern. According to a Trump adviser, Maduro is underestimating the gravity of the situation.
On a recent NBC interview, Trump stated that he would not dismiss the idea of military action against Venezuela, further heightening the stakes surrounding these unsanctioned tankers. Analysts suggest that while Maduro's supporters hail his defiance in challenging Trump's authority, the decision to dispatch these vessels appears to be a calculated strategy to assert independence without provoking a direct confrontation with the U.S.
Samir Madani, co-founder of Tanker Trackers, commented that this tactic could be considered a "Plan B" for Maduro. He noted that many sanctioned tankers remain in Venezuelan waters, carefully avoiding capture by U.S. forces. Thus, Maduro's dispatching of the two unsanctioned tankers may be a strategic gamble intended to project strength while minimizing risks.
The backdrop to this situation is Operation Southern Spear, an unprecedented U.S. armada off the coast of Venezuela originally initiated for drug interdiction. This operation has led to the destruction of 28 vessels suspected of trafficking cocaine, along with the reported deaths of over 100 individuals. Although Trump has never explicitly stated that he aims to oust Maduro, U.S. policy clearly hints at a desire for regime change, as Maduro faces accusations of narco-terrorism and electoral fraud.
Last week, Trump escalated tensions by seizing a sanctioned vessel carrying approximately 1.9 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil and announced a blockade shortly thereafter. The two large unsanctioned tankers that left Venezuela on Thursday now present Trump with an opportunity to further escalate the situation.
Trump's advisers indicate that the vessels, which are reportedly bound for China, could be seized based on three primary justifications: Trump recently designated Venezuela's government as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) when he announced the blockade. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury Department has sanctioned Venezuela's oil ministry, known in Spanish as PDVSA, since 2019.
While the U.S. has not implemented maximum pressure on Venezuela, it has recognized Chevron as the only oil company permitted to operate there legally, allowing Caracas access to significant oil resources not bound by U.S. sanctions. However, the Treasury Department is increasing its sanctions on more vessels, which may provide a greater legal basis for seizing them in the future.
In response to these developments, Maduro and his administration have condemned what they describe as U.S. piracy, criticizing Trump's rhetoric as incoherent and labeling the U.S. actions as neo-colonialism. Venezuela has appealed to the United Nations for intervention, asserting its sovereignty and right to resist U.S. aggression.
In a statement from the National Bolivarian Armed Forces, they invoked the legacy of revolutionary leader Simón Bolívar, asserting that the nation will not be intimidated by U.S. threats. The statement emphasized that the dignity of Venezuela is non-negotiable and that the country has a historical precedent of overcoming powerful empires.