Recently, former President Donald Trump claimed that Washington, D.C. has a homicide rate of 41 per 100,000, asserting it to be the highest globally. Holding up a chart during a public appearance, he compared homicide rates across various capital cities and maintained that other cities might be problematic, but none can match D.C.'s statistics. However, the information he presented requires a closer examination.
The chart Trump displayed originally aired on Fox News’ “The Will Cain Show” on August 6, 2023. Crucially, he failed to mention that the data was outdated and did not reflect the significant changes that followed. According to reports from the Rochester Institute of Technology, the homicide rate in Washington, D.C. for 2023 was actually 39.4 per 100,000 people, not the 41 he claimed. Furthermore, crime data analyst Jeff Asher pointed out that comparing Washington, D.C. to large cities worldwide is misleading, given its relatively small population of around 700,000 residents.
James Alan Fox, a criminology professor at Northeastern University, emphasized that Washington, D.C.'s homicide rate is heavily influenced by its urban environment. Unlike major cities such as New York and Philadelphia, D.C. is almost entirely urban, lacking the suburban areas that can dilute crime statistics. When considering crime rates, including suburban populations tends to yield safer averages, underscoring the importance of context in these comparisons.
In 2024, the homicide rate in Washington, D.C. significantly decreased to 27.3 per 100,000, according to a February report from the Rochester Institute of Technology. This represents a notable drop from 2023 and demonstrates a broader trend of declining violent crime in the district. The Department of Justice corroborated this decline, reporting a 35% reduction in violent crime for 2024, marking the lowest levels in over 30 years. In raw numbers, D.C. recorded 274 homicides in 2023 and 187 homicides in 2024.
Despite Trump's assertions, Washington, D.C. does not hold the title for the highest homicide rate globally. The Igarapé Institute, a Brazilian nonprofit organization that monitors homicide rates worldwide, identified at least 49 cities with higher homicide rates than D.C. in 2023. Notably, three of these cities are also capitals: Cape Town (South Africa), Kingston (Jamaica), and Caracas (Venezuela). While Trump compared D.C. to Bogotá (Colombia) and Mexico City, it is essential to recognize that the district's rate was indeed higher than these cities.
Fox also pointed out the challenges in comparing crime statistics across different countries, noting that the accuracy of crime data can vary significantly. He attributes the relatively high homicide rates in the U.S. compared to other countries largely to the proliferation of firearms in American society. Furthermore, Washington, D.C.'s homicide rate is not the highest within the United States; it ranks fourth, following St. Louis, New Orleans, and Detroit, based on the February report from the Rochester Institute of Technology.
In summary, Trump's claim about Washington, D.C.'s homicide rate is misleading and based on outdated data. His assertion that the district has the highest homicide rate in the world lacks factual support, as there are numerous other cities that exceed D.C.’s rates. With the homicide rate showing a downward trend over the past year, it is crucial to rely on accurate and current statistics when discussing crime rates in Washington, D.C.
