On May 19, following a lengthy two-hour phone conversation with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump took to social media to announce that Russia and Ukraine would "immediately start negotiations" aimed at achieving a ceasefire and ultimately ending the ongoing war. However, he emphasized that the terms of peace would be determined solely by the two conflicting parties, stating, “as it can only be.” Trump also mentioned that the Vatican has expressed interest in hosting these negotiations, and he informed European leaders of the developments, indicating a significant shift in the US's approach to the conflict.
It appears that the US has effectively abandoned its previously stalled mediation efforts to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. This decision to step back from mediation was hinted at on May 16, when the first face-to-face talks between Ukraine and Russia in over three years concluded without any ceasefire agreement. Following this lack of progress, Trump announced he would soon be speaking with both Russian and Ukrainian leaders by phone, signaling the start of a rearguard action regarding US involvement in the conflict.
Adding to this narrative, Vice President J.D. Vance publicly stated that the US might end its shuttle diplomacy efforts, reinforcing the idea that the US is reconsidering its role in the negotiations.
The limited outcomes from the recent discussions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the Trump-Putin call, were not unexpected. Russia has shown no inclination to make concessions, maintaining its demands for territorial concessions from Ukraine and insisting on future neutrality. Following his call with Trump, Putin was quoted saying that Russia is prepared to work with Ukraine on a memorandum regarding a possible peace agreement, which could include a temporary ceasefire, contingent on relevant agreements being reached.
The Kremlin’s slow-walk approach to negotiations underscores its apparent lack of urgency in ending hostilities. On the day before the Trump-Putin conversation, Russia conducted its largest drone attack against Ukraine to date, targeting several regions, including Kyiv. This escalation in violence further indicates that a ceasefire is not a priority for the Russian leadership.
It seems that a significant part of the Kremlin's strategy involves negotiating a grand bargain with the White House, seeking to reset US-Russia relations—an endeavor they appear to prioritize over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This notion is echoed in Trump's assessment of his conversation with Putin, which he described as having an "excellent" tone and spirit, hinting at potential for "large-scale trade" between the two nations.
Trump has previously indicated that meaningful progress towards peace in Ukraine would require direct engagement with Putin. However, it is essential to recognize that little progress has been made toward a ceasefire since his last conversation with the Russian president in February. Trump's reluctance to apply any significant pressure on Putin has contributed to this stagnation. Despite discussions in Brussels and preparations in Washington for escalating sanctions against Russia, it seems unlikely that Trump will alter his current stance.
The sequence of recent calls is particularly telling. Trump first spoke briefly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky before engaging with Putin. Zelensky conveyed his concerns to Trump, urging him not to make decisions regarding Ukraine without Ukrainian input. Yet, rather than presenting Putin with a firm ultimatum for a ceasefire, Trump chose to discuss future relations extensively, leaving Zelensky and European allies to grapple with the war in Ukraine independently.
This shift has understandably raised alarms in Kyiv and European capitals, prompting fears that the US might fully abandon its allies in favor of a reset with Russia. However, if Trump’s strategy is indeed to pursue a reset with Russia at any cost, it is likely to falter. While Putin may be willing to continue his aggressive posture towards Ukraine, Zelensky is equally determined not to capitulate. Additionally, Putin enjoys the backing of China, while Zelensky can rely on support from Europe, where aiding Ukraine has become crucial in countering Russia's ambitions.
In an evolving geopolitical landscape, these dynamics suggest that a US-Russia reset is improbable. Even if such a reset were to occur, it would not enhance Washington's standing against Beijing. By disengaging from the Ukraine conflict and European alliances, the US risks undermining its long-term strategy against China.
Ultimately, by stepping back from mediation efforts between Moscow and Kyiv, Trump may have temporarily broken the deadlock in his quest for a reset with Russia. However, achieving this goal at the expense of established alliances could lead to significant long-term consequences.
