The 2026 midterm elections are on the horizon, yet many states find their congressional boundary lines in a state of flux. Following the enactment of new congressional maps in six states this year, several others may soon join the fray in a mid-decade redistricting battle. This fight could significantly influence which party controls the House of Representatives. John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, remarked, “We’re still squarely in the middle of this redistricting crisis.”
Typically, the redrawing of congressional district lines occurs at the beginning of each decade, aligned with new census results. However, the summer of 2023 saw an unusual surge in redistricting activity, prompted by former President Donald Trump. He urged Republican-led states to create new maps to bolster the GOP's fragile House majority. States like Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina adopted new congressional maps, potentially adding as many as seven seats for Republicans. Nonetheless, the anticipated advantage did not fully materialize.
In a counter-response, California Democrats approved a new map via voter initiative last month, which could yield up to five additional seats for their party, effectively negating Texas’ gains. Ohio Republicans reached a compromise with Democrats on a scheduled map revision that may only add one or two seats for the GOP, falling short of party expectations. Meanwhile, a court-ordered map in Utah has resulted in a new Democratic-leaning district, and Indiana lawmakers recently dealt a significant blow to national Republicans by rejecting a proposed map that would have granted the party two more seats following sustained pressure from Trump and his supporters.
As the new year approaches, the focus shifts to how various states will navigate their redistricting challenges.
This fall, Virginia Democrats took a surprising step by advancing a complex legislative strategy aimed at redrawing the state’s congressional map ahead of the 2026 midterms. In October, the Democratic-controlled Legislature passed a constitutional amendment that would permit lawmakers to redraw the congressional map if another state does so outside of the typical decennial cycle, without needing a court order. This amendment will require a second Legislative approval next year, likely with even more Democratic support following strong election results in November. If successful, the new map could target as many as four Republican-held districts.
Virginia House Speaker Don Scott indicated that Democrats could shift the current delegation from a 6-5 split (six Democrats, five Republicans) to a potential 10-1 advantage. With the current lines, Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger won eight out of eleven congressional districts in the recent election. The Virginia lawmakers must act swiftly, as the primary election filing deadline is April 2, although this date may shift to accommodate a new map.
In Florida, where the Republican-led Legislature is expected to pursue a redistricting initiative next year, there are significant challenges ahead. The state Constitution prohibits partisan gerrymandering, and infighting between Governor Ron DeSantis and GOP lawmakers complicates the situation. Currently, Republicans control 20 of Florida's 28 congressional districts and hope to secure an additional three to five seats with a new map.
State House lawmakers have shown intent to move quickly, recently convening a committee hearing to initiate the process. However, DeSantis prefers to await a Supreme Court ruling on a case that may weaken a crucial provision of the Voting Rights Act, potentially streamlining the redistricting process. With a filing deadline in late April and primary elections in mid-August, Florida Republicans have some flexibility, though these dates may also be adjusted.
Republicans in Kansas face a more daunting path regarding redistricting. Legislative leaders have indicated they will revisit the issue when they reconvene in January. However, they previously attempted and failed to advance the topic earlier this year. A critical hurdle is the requirement for two-thirds support in the Legislature to override a veto by Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly. Kansas House Speaker Dan Hawkins is pressuring a group of Republican lawmakers who previously refused to support a special session on redistricting.
Despite the challenges, Kansas has only one Democratic-held district that Republicans can realistically target. Kelly expressed skepticism about the likelihood of redistricting being seriously considered, suggesting little has changed among legislators' positions on the issue.
Outside of Virginia, Democrats have limited redistricting opportunities in Maryland and Illinois. In Maryland, Democratic Gov. Wes Moore established a redistricting commission to explore potential changes. If they proceed, the only GOP target would be Rep. Andy Harris' district. However, Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson has previously indicated reluctance to consider a new map, stating, “If we want to protect this democracy in the future, we have got to chart a different path.”
In Illinois, there has been minimal movement regarding redistricting discussions. Concerns over minority representation, particularly among Black lawmakers, have led to hesitance about modifying existing maps. Some Democrats believe new maps could yield an extra seat or two in a state where they already control 14 out of 17 congressional districts. Previously, Gov. JB Pritzker stated that Illinois' redistricting efforts would depend on developments in Indiana. After Indiana Republicans rejected a redrawn map, Pritzker vowed to remain vigilant against any unfair mapping efforts.
Missouri Republicans enacted a new map in September that alters Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s Kansas City district. However, this change is currently facing opposition, as a Democratic-backed group has submitted a petition to place a referendum on the ballot aimed at repealing the new map. While this petition is under consideration, Missouri law typically suspends the implementation of such changes. State officials announced they would not pause the new map until the signatures are verified, potentially leading to further legal disputes.
A significant variable in the upcoming redistricting process is the Supreme Court, which appears poised to further weaken the Voting Rights Act as it deliberates on a Louisiana redistricting case. An early ruling in favor of this direction could pave the way for Republican-led states, especially in the South, to alter majority-Black districts typically represented by Democrats. For instance, Louisiana’s Republican-controlled Legislature passed two bills in October aimed at delaying the state’s election calendar, intending to provide lawmakers the opportunity to redraw their congressional map in response to a favorable Supreme Court ruling.
Republicans in South Carolina have also expressed interest in creating a new map that could unseat the state’s only Democrat, Rep. Jim Clyburn, who represents a majority-Black district. Additionally, Alabama Republicans, who currently control two districts, could follow suit. However, if the Supreme Court's ruling is delayed until the end of its term in June, it is likely that any new maps resulting from this decision may not take effect until after the 2026 elections.