On Sunday, Japan's ruling coalition was projected to lose its majority in the upper house of parliament, marking a potentially devastating defeat for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. This loss could significantly threaten Ishiba’s political future and destabilize his government, particularly as the nation approaches a critical tariff deadline with the United States.
The influence of Prime Minister Ishiba has been on the decline since his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) failed to secure an absolute majority in the more powerful lower house in October, a first in 15 years. This failure has initiated an unusual period of political disarray for Japan, a key ally of the U.S. in Asia. With back-to-back electoral losses, there is increasing pressure on Ishiba to resign from his position after less than a year in office.
Voter trust in the conservative LDP, along with its coalition partner Komeito, has been wavering amid rising prices and discontent regarding the government's handling of inflation. Despite this turmoil, Ishiba has expressed his intention to remain in office, stating, “We must accept this difficult situation humbly and sincerely,” during an interview with national broadcaster NHK as election results started coming in. He later reiterated his commitment to continue leading the government in a discussion with TV Tokyo.
This political instability arises at a critical juncture in trade relations between Tokyo and Washington. Ongoing trade negotiations have been fraught with tension, particularly after President Donald Trump threatened to impose 25 percent tariffs on Japan's export-driven economy if a deal is not reached by August 1. Japan has been among the first nations to engage with the Trump administration, but Ishiba’s administration has encountered challenges in making concessions due to the looming elections.
In the recent election, 125 seats were contested in the 248-seat upper chamber. The LDP and Komeito needed to retain at least 50 of the 66 seats they held to maintain control. As of early Monday local time, the coalition had only secured 42 seats, with 15 remaining uncalled. Major Japanese media outlets, including NHK, indicated through exit polls that maintaining a majority would be challenging for the LDP coalition. The economy emerged as the primary concern for voters, with rising prices following nearly three decades of stagnation.
The rising cost of living, particularly the spike in rice prices—a staple in Japanese culture—has added to voter frustration. This surge is attributed to government policies that have failed to align supply with demand. Such economic concerns come amidst ongoing fallout from a significant political fundraising scandal that has tainted the LDP and many of its leaders.
The combination of these challenges has shaped the public's perception of the LDP, which has been in power almost continuously since its establishment in 1955. Many voters now view the LDP as a "do-nothing" party that has neglected their needs. According to Tobias Harris, an expert on Japanese politics and founder of Japan Foresight, Ishiba has not effectively changed this narrative. Moreover, emerging political parties are beginning to gain traction, offering alternatives for voters who feel unrepresented.
Among the new parties making waves is the center-right Democratic Party for the People, which is resonating with younger voters through its populist message. The center-left Constitutional Democratic Party has emerged as the largest opposition party. Yoshihiko Noda, the leader of the CDP and former prime minister, remarked, “The public has clearly expressed a ‘no’ to the Ishiba administration.”
Additionally, the right-wing Sanseito party is capitalizing on anti-foreigner sentiments as Japan increasingly opens its doors to foreign workers to address its aging population. Their “Japan First” platform has gained significant traction on social media, reflecting a growing frustration with the LDP. Shiro Sakaiya, a political science professor at the University of Tokyo, noted that many voters are starting to consider alternatives, suggesting that the LDP's grip on power is no longer as secure as it once was.
