If money talks in American politics, then Elon Musk is making quite the ruckus. After investing a staggering $288 million last year to support Donald Trump and his allies, Musk has recently issued a bold ultimatum: align with the cost-cutting agenda they campaigned on or vacate office. Given the current climate of distrust in the political system, Musk's influence as the world's richest man could be significant. However, his recent threats to establish a third major political party have met considerable skepticism, as critics point out the numerous failed attempts by others to disrupt America’s entrenched two-party system.
Musk’s challenges extend beyond the historical difficulties of third-party movements. His ambitious foray into politics has left his vast business empire in a precarious position. A contentious relationship with Trump, along with a costly and ultimately unsuccessful campaign to elect a Wisconsin Supreme Court judge, has diminished his political capital. Furthermore, Musk's popularity has taken a hit as his oversight of the newly created U.S. DOGE Service has led to disruption within the federal government, exposing more Americans to his controversial persona and ideas.
Even some of Musk's staunchest supporters are beginning to voice their concerns regarding his political direction, suggesting he should concentrate on the business ventures that have contributed to his estimated net worth of $400 billion. Nonetheless, Musk has a history of defying expectations, as evidenced by his unexpected acquisition of Twitter and prominent involvement in the 2024 election.
This week, Musk took to the platform he purchased to express his outrage at members of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending but subsequently supported the largest debt increase in U.S. history. “Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame!” Musk wrote on X. “And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.” His next target seems to be the reelection campaign of Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky), who opposes Trump’s legislative package.
Musk's willingness to support Massie, encouraged by former GOP congressman Justin Amash, raises eyebrows, particularly as Trump is already strategizing to defeat Massie in the upcoming election. This northern Kentucky race could mark the first direct confrontation between Musk and Trump.
Despite Musk's assertions, lawmakers in Washington seem unconcerned. Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Oklahoma) downplayed Musk’s threats, stating, “It doesn’t matter, doesn’t matter at all, no. It’s not even been a conversation of ours.” This sentiment was echoed by other Republican lawmakers who have found themselves at odds with Trump, as two—Rep. Don Bacon (Nebraska) and Sen. Thom Tillis (North Carolina)—recently announced they would not seek reelection, likely due to Trump’s influence.
Musk’s ambitions to position himself as a third-party leader invite scrutiny regarding his political vision. Transitioning from a Democratic-leaning Trump critic to a fervent Trump supporter, Musk’s evolving political identity has been met with skepticism, even from Trump allies. “I think it’s the ketamine talking in the middle of the night,” remarked Trump pollster Jim McLaughlin, referencing Musk's alleged drug use. “Trump is the Republican Party right now. There’s not a hankering for a third party with Elon Musk.”
Public sentiment reflects a desire for change; a Gallup poll indicated that 58 percent of U.S. adults believe a third party is necessary due to the Republican and Democratic parties' failure to represent the American populace effectively. This sentiment has remained consistent, averaging 56 percent support for a third party since 2003.
Historical evidence suggests that third-party candidates rarely succeed. Ross Perot, one of the most notable independent candidates in U.S. history, received approximately 19 percent of the popular vote but failed to secure any electoral college votes. “Third parties are traditionally spoilers or wasted votes,” noted Lee Drutman, a senior fellow at the New America think tank. He added that if Musk's goal is to disrupt the current political landscape, such an endeavor might be more attainable.
The increasing political polarization in the U.S. complicates the landscape for third-party candidates. Unlike the 1992 election, where both Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush presented centrist platforms, the 2024 contest features stark differences between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, making it harder for a third-party candidate to gain traction.
Musk entered the political arena in earnest during the 2024 presidential election cycle. Beyond his significant financial contributions, he frequently appeared at Trump rallies and voiced his support on X. However, his political journey has not been without pitfalls. Earlier this year, Musk's attempt to influence the Wisconsin Supreme Court election saw him spend over $20 million to support conservative candidates, yet they ultimately lost by a considerable margin. Analysts suggest that Musk's high-profile involvement may have inadvertently galvanized a more significant liberal turnout.
In recent months, Musk has openly discussed the potential formation of a new political party, stemming from his criticism of the GOP's spending bill. “Is it time to create a new political party in America that actually represents the 80% in the middle?” he queried while conducting a poll on social media. Following this, he has intensified his calls for a new party, indicating that if the spending bill passes, the “America Party” could be born the very next day.
One insider, who spoke anonymously, questioned Musk's overarching strategy. “I agree our government is broken, but it’s a tougher problem to fix than landing a rocket,” they remarked, highlighting the complexities that lie ahead for Musk’s political aspirations.
