As anticipated as “Oppenheimer” (Universal) was last year during its journey to securing seven Oscars, including Best Picture, this year's Academy Awards present a fierce competition between two main contenders. Sean Baker's “Anora” (Neon), a Palme d’Or-winning comedy with six nominations, and Edward Berger's Vatican thriller “Conclave” (Focus Features), with eight nominations, are at the forefront. Both films have dominated various precursor awards; “Anora” triumphed at the Critics Choice Awards, DGA, PGA, WGA, and Indie Spirits, while “Conclave” captured the BAFTAs and the SAG Ensemble award.
Despite its success, “Anora” faces a challenge due to the preferential ballot system, which played a pivotal role in its PGA win. Such a victory is often predictive, yet the BAFTAs have highlighted the preferences of the international voting bloc, which comprises 20 percent of the 10,000 Oscar voters. In a year expected to deliver surprises, my prediction is that “Anora” will secure three Oscars, including Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. Meanwhile, the larger-scale indie “The Brutalist” (A24), with ten nominations, is likely to win three awards (Actor, Cinematography, and Score), and “Conclave” is expected to take home two (Adapted Screenplay and Editing).
While epic musical “Wicked” (Universal) and sci-fi adventure “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) are anticipated to win in certain crafts categories, they are not predicted to win Best Picture. With thirteen nominations, “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) remains a strong contender despite its controversies, with potential wins in three categories. The competition is tight, as Best Picture, International Feature, and Actress nominee “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics) continues to gain momentum.
Sean Baker, known for his fiercely independent filmmaking, is the favorite to win Best Director for “Anora.” Despite facing competition from Brady Corbet of “The Brutalist,” Baker's DGA win and unique storytelling style make him a strong contender.
Adrien Brody's portrayal in “The Brutalist” is expected to earn him his second Oscar, years after his first win for “The Pianist.” Although Timothée Chalamet delivered a noteworthy performance in “A Complete Unknown,” Brody's compelling role as a Holocaust survivor in America has garnered significant acclaim.
Demi Moore is the frontrunner for Best Actress for her performance in “The Substance.” Her emotional Golden Globes speech and subsequent wins at the CCAs and SAG have solidified her position, although Mikey Madison's surprise win at the BAFTAs for “Anora” makes her a formidable competitor.
Kieran Culkin is the favorite for Best Supporting Actor for his role in “A Real Pain.” His performance has swept the precursors, overshadowing Edward Norton's portrayal in “A Complete Unknown.”
Zoe Saldaña is anticipated to win Best Supporting Actress for her role in “Emilia Pérez.” Her performance in the Spanish-language musical has been widely celebrated, though Ariana Grande’s breakout role in “Wicked” presents strong competition.
Sean Baker is expected to win Best Original Screenplay for “Anora.” While Jesse Eisenberg's “A Real Pain” has shown strength, Baker's WGA win positions him as the likely winner in this category.
Peter Straughan is the frontrunner for Best Adapted Screenplay for “Conclave.” The film's adaptation of Robert Harris's bestseller has been well-received, with notable wins including the BAFTAs and CCAs.
“The Wild Robot” is predicted to win Best Animated Feature, with its strong box office performance and multiple nominations. “Flow,” however, remains a strong contender with its international acclaim.
In the Short Film categories, “In the Shadow of the Cyprus” is expected to win Best Animated Short for its poignant storytelling, while “Yuck!” offers a lighter, comedic alternative.
“The Brutalist” is expected to win Best Cinematography, with Lol Crawley's innovative work being widely praised. Ed Lachman’s work on “Maria” is a close contender.
“Wicked” leads the race for Best Costume Design, showcasing extraordinary fantasy elements that have captured the attention of the Costume Designers Guild and other awards bodies.
“Porcelain War” is a strong contender for Best Documentary Feature, capturing the resilience of artists amidst conflict. “No Other Land” remains a critical favorite with its powerful narrative.
“Conclave” is expected to win Best Editing, with Nick Emerson’s work being recognized for its international appeal. “Anora” presents a strong alternative with its dynamic editing style.
“Emilia Pérez” is a frontrunner for Best International Feature Film, with its unique narrative and musical elements. “I’m Still Here” remains a strong contender with its compelling story.
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” is anticipated to win Best Live Action Short, with its poignant depiction of historical events. “A Lien” offers a timely and impactful alternative.
“The Substance” is favored for Best Makeup and Hairstyling, recognized for its innovative effects. “Wicked” provides strong competition with its elaborate designs.
“Wicked” is expected to win Best Production Design, with its expansive and imaginative recreation of the land of Oz. “The Brutalist” offers a strong visual alternative.
Daniel Blumberg’s score for “The Brutalist” is a frontrunner for Best Original Score, though Volker Bertelmann’s work on “Conclave” presents a strong challenge.
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” is anticipated to win Best Original Song, with its powerful musical performance. Diane Warren’s “The Journey” remains a notable spoiler.
“Dune: Part Two” is expected to win Best Sound, with its immersive auditory experience. “A Complete Unknown” offers a strong alternative with its dynamic live performances.
