This past weekend, WWE veteran Dwayne Johnson faced a significant challenge at the box office with his latest film, The Smashing Machine. The R-rated drama, which tells the story of UFC champion Mark Kerr, debuted to disappointing numbers, earning only $5.9 million in the U.S. This marks Johnson's lowest opening ever, a startling statistic for a star of his caliber.
The Smashing Machine has been a passion project for Johnson since he announced it back at the UFC 244 card weigh-in in November 2019. The film received a warm reception at its Venice Film Festival premiere, where it garnered a 15 and a half minute standing ovation, and Johnson himself was visibly emotional. Critics had initially praised the film, with a solid 73% Rotten Tomatoes certified fresh score, creating high expectations for its box office performance.
Three weeks prior to its release, The Smashing Machine was projected to be one of A24's highest openings, with estimates ranging between $14 million and $20 million. However, as the release date approached, early word-of-mouth from its Toronto premiere began to dampen expectations. Contrary to its promotion as a sports film, audiences discovered that it delves into the complex themes of addiction rather than showcasing an underdog athlete’s triumph.
Despite the disappointing opening, there is some silver lining. The film’s net production cost stands at approximately $50 million, and estimates suggest that losses could be limited to between $10 million and $15 million. This projection takes into account tax credits from Vancouver and New Mexico, as well as potential revenue from foreign sales, which Johnson lobbied for at Cannes in 2024.
Wrestling-themed movies have historically faced challenges at the box office. The Smashing Machine was expected to break this trend, yet it is essential to recognize that there is a low ceiling for such films. Previous wrestling movies like A24’s Iron Claw and Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler have achieved modest success, but none have become box office juggernauts.
Critics are pointing fingers at A24’s marketing strategy, suggesting that the studio may have relied too heavily on digital campaigns. While they did engage in sports programming, many believe their efforts were too late to have a significant impact. Dwayne Johnson's appeal typically draws a broad audience, yet Smashing Machine failed to attract the adult demographic over 35, which is unusual for a film featuring such a prominent star.
Despite this setback, there is no need for Dwayne Johnson to be overly concerned. He has a strong lineup ahead, including the upcoming live-action adaptation of Moana set for release on July 10, 2026, and Jumanji 3 scheduled for December 11 of next year. Johnson's resilience and ability to draw audiences will likely see him return to box office success in the near future.
The disappointing performance of The Smashing Machine serves as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of the film industry, particularly for projects that stray from traditional formulas. As Dwayne Johnson continues to navigate the complexities of Hollywood, fans eagerly await his next big hit.
