In his first 100 days back in the Oval Office, Donald Trump has managed to drive an economy that many once envied to the brink of crisis. His actions are risking America’s reputation as a financial safe haven and have fostered fear among a populace that is increasingly losing confidence in his leadership. Americans, desperate for relief from soaring grocery prices, bought into Trump’s promise to make the nation affordable again, partly fueled by a nostalgia for the pre-pandemic economy of his first term.
However, Trump has adopted policies that are likely to spike prices further, potentially leading to shortages. This has left CEOs and small businesses grappling with chaos and the looming threat of a recession. He is attempting to enact the most fundamental overhaul of both the US and global economies in generations, convinced that he can recreate a mythical late 19th-century golden age through “beautiful” tariffs designed to exert US economic might over trade rivals.
Despite his ambitious plans, Trump has often seemed indifferent to the growing concerns of Americans, from business leaders to ordinary shoppers. The impacts of his policies are being felt in real-time during his first 100 days, which he is set to commemorate on Tuesday. Trillions of dollars have been wiped off the stock markets, airlines are cutting flights, and numerous top firms are revising their annual forecasts downward. Some retailers have even stopped selling China-made goods in the US due to the tariffs.
The International Monetary Fund has cut US growth forecasts, and the Federal Reserve reports that some businesses have halted hiring. Walmart's CEO has warned Trump that his policies could seize up the supply chain by summer. Consumer sentiment has plummeted to its fourth-lowest level since 1952, indicating a potential slide toward recession. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index has been registering “fear” or “extreme fear” for the past month, raising alarms about the economic climate.
Much of Trump’s trade policy is legally and constitutionally questionable as he unilaterally declared a national emergency to unlock powers for tariff warfare. He is now wielding significant and unchecked authority to test his long-held belief that the United States has been exploited by other countries. His goal is to force foreign markets open for US products and to incentivize manufacturers to relocate factories and jobs back to regions that have suffered due to globalization.
Trump insists that numerous nations are eager to enter into US-friendly deals that will enrich Americans. However, millions of American jobs hang in the balance as he implements a core belief that the United States should not lead but rather use its strength to coerce smaller nations into agreements that only benefit America. This “America first” approach has already alienated many of America's allies, a situation that Trump seems to view as advantageous.
Trump's temperament and belief in his superior economic acumen are further pushing the US economy toward instability. His public attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have damaged America's image as a bastion of stability in the global economy. Although Trump has demanded significant interest-rate cuts, many experts warn that this could exacerbate inflation, which is already expected to rise due to his tariffs. Such market interference has led to negative reactions, which may explain his recent softening of threats to fire the central bank chief.
Additionally, Trump is escalating a dangerous confrontation with China, engaging in full-scale economic warfare with the 21st-century superpower, which carries significant geopolitical implications beyond mere trading conditions.
Trump is making a perilous gamble. He recently declared “Liberation Day” in the White House Rose Garden, heralding what he believes is a declaration of economic independence. However, within hours of new tariffs going into effect, he paused them for 90 days, seemingly shaken by troubling signs in the bond markets. His officials, however, continue to hail this as evidence of his brilliance, predicting a wave of deals that would boost the economy, although none have materialized so far.
The confusion and policy reversals have been traumatic for millions of Americans who sought economic relief but instead face renewed financial pressures. After winning a plurality of the popular vote in November, Trump’s approval rating has plummeted to 41%, the lowest for any president in their first 100 days in 70 years, according to a recent CNN/SSRS poll. His approval rating concerning the economy is at a record low of 39%, with only 35% supporting his approach to inflation and tariffs.
As Trump’s political position deteriorates, pressure is mounting to produce tangible results that justify the significant disruption his policies have caused. The administration claims that Trump’s seemingly capricious economic policy is a strategic approach poised to yield favorable outcomes. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has referred to Trump as the “ultimate dealmaker,” suggesting a new era of market expansion is on the horizon.
However, if Trump’s tariff strategy does not yield improved trading conditions for the United States, he risks plunging the nation—and the world—into recession, making it impossible for him to escape the consequences of his policies. The administration anticipates a flurry of trade deals with countries like Japan, South Korea, and the European Union; however, such agreements typically take years to negotiate and require ratification by foreign legislatures, likely falling short of the transformative change Trump envisions.
Even if Trump achieves some success, his approach will almost certainly result in higher prices for American consumers, contradicting the message voters sent last November. In a recent interview, Trump indicated he would consider tariffs of 20% to 50% on foreign imports as a “total victory,” which would inevitably lead to a steep increase in consumer prices—a massive tax hike in essence. Although he claims to have reduced prices for basic goods since taking office, this assertion is largely unfounded.
Trump’s self-image as a master economic orchestrator suggests that even rockier times lie ahead. He has posited that he would take control of pricing goods, claiming, “We are a department store, and we set the price.” Such an arbitrary approach, especially from someone with a rudimentary understanding of economics, could result in chaos and corruption, undermining the rules-based economic system that has positioned the US as a global leader.
