The Trump administration has set an ambitious goal of negotiating 90 trade deals in 90 days. However, the challenges associated with swiftly resolving the ongoing trade war have become increasingly apparent. On Monday, European Union trade chief Maros Sefcovic will arrive in Washington for urgent discussions regarding the steep tariffs that President Trump announced on April 2. The European Union is one of the largest U.S. trade partners, with nearly $1 trillion in two-way trade recorded last year.
Despite Sefcovic's arrival, Trump's top tariff negotiator, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, will be in Buenos Aires, supporting Argentina's economic reforms. This decision is particularly notable given that Argentina accounts for a modest $16.3 billion in annual trade with the U.S. Bessent's absence raises questions among trade experts about the administration's capability to manage such a high volume of negotiations effectively. Wendy Cutler, a former chief negotiator for the U.S. Trade Representative, expressed skepticism, stating, "There's no way during this timeframe we're doing a comprehensive agreement with any of these countries."
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, however, remains optimistic. In a recent appearance on Fox Business Network, he asserted that Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick are capable of achieving the ambitious goal of 90 deals within the specified timeframe. "It's possible," Navarro claimed. He emphasized that President Trump would ultimately oversee negotiations, ensuring that nothing is finalized without his careful review.
President Trump initiated the 90-day countdown earlier this week by pausing the implementation of higher tariffs for many countries. This move comes in response to financial markets experiencing turmoil due to fears of recession and inflation. The President noted that this 90-day pause would allow countries the opportunity to negotiate bilateral agreements with the U.S. Regaining investor confidence is another crucial goal during this period.
This week, U.S. Treasury debt saw a sell-off, leading to a spike in interest rates and a decline in the dollar's value amid recession fears. In contrast, gold prices surged to record highs, reflecting its status as a safe-haven investment during economic crises. Cutler pointed out that the ongoing market turmoil will pressure the Trump administration to secure quick wins, stating, "The onus is going to be on them to show that they can quickly conclude agreements with countries."
The increasing tension between the U.S. and China, which has faced new tariffs without reprieve and responded with counter-tariffs, further complicates the situation. Cutler emphasized that achieving trade deals that satisfy both Trump's objectives and market expectations is a daunting task. To navigate these challenges, the Trump team may need to prioritize key countries while potentially extending the 90-day pause for others.
Even small trade agreements, such as revisions to the automotive and steel provisions of the U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement, have historically taken over eight months to finalize. In contrast, the comprehensive U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade took over two years to negotiate. Nonetheless, Greer remains hopeful that the administration can reach satisfactory agreements swiftly, stating, "We can get to a point where the president can close these deals."
The logistics of coordinating 90 sets of negotiations pose a significant challenge for the Trump administration, which is already stretched thin. Many crucial positions remain unfilled, and officials are often occupied with other responsibilities, such as recent meetings between Treasury officials and Ukrainian representatives regarding a critical minerals deal. Greer noted that his team of 200 staff members is working tirelessly to facilitate negotiations with foreign counterparts.
Currently, Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender is the only other senior Treasury official confirmed by the Senate. Furthermore, Trump has yet to nominate anyone for the critical role of undersecretary for international affairs, leaving an acting official to fill the position. The U.S. Trade Representative's office is similarly reliant on career staff, with several key deputy roles also awaiting Senate confirmation.
Another complicating factor in the negotiations is the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. positions on various trade matters. A diplomatic source indicated that the top trade advisers within the Trump administration each hold differing views, making it challenging to present a unified front. Although some countries, including Britain and Australia, have engaged in discussions with the administration since Trump's inauguration, tangible results have been minimal. "It's not like there's a sheet of paper with firm talking points that is changing hands," noted one diplomatic source, emphasizing the ongoing nature of these discussions.
As the Trump administration embarks on this ambitious goal of 90 trade deals in 90 days, the coming weeks will be critical in determining the feasibility of such an initiative amid the complexities of global trade dynamics.
