In recent years, investors have increasingly turned their attention to Amazon Web Services (AWS), which has become a significant contributor to Amazon's overall profitability. During the latest earnings call, Amazon's leadership indicated that they anticipate a multibillion-dollar revenue boost for AWS, primarily driven by its rapidly expanding AI business. This sector is currently experiencing growth at a remarkable triple-digit percentage year-over-year.
Furthermore, Amazon's executives mentioned that capacity constraints related to AI chips and server components are expected to ease in the latter half of this year, potentially accelerating AWS's growth. While the retail segment of Amazon is predicted to bear the brunt of tariff-related challenges, some analysts warn that a broader spending slowdown could adversely affect AWS's revenue.
Investors are keenly observing how AWS's services stack up against Microsoft Azure. This competition was a focal point during Microsoft's recent earnings report. According to Flexera, a software asset and cloud management firm, the contest for the title of top cloud provider is largely a two-horse race between AWS and Azure. Notably, Flexera's research indicates that small and medium-sized businesses are more inclined to select AWS for their public cloud workloads, with 77% utilizing AWS for some or all of their operations.
Despite the challenges posed by declining consumer confidence and increasing trade barriers, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about Amazon's long-term prospects. In the first quarter, Goldman revised its revenue estimates downward to account for these emerging headwinds, projecting that tariffs would dampen demand and raise product costs. However, the bank believes that Amazon can mitigate these challenges by lessening its reliance on Chinese markets and focusing more on domestic merchandise.
Goldman estimates that Amazon will generate approximately $154.5 billion in revenue. Looking ahead, the firm considers AMZN to be one of its top picks, given its exposure to key growth sectors in both Consumer Internet and Cloud Computing. The bank maintains a Buy rating on Amazon stock, with a target price of $220.
In April, Wall Street analysts noted that AWS had paused discussions regarding several data center deals, particularly those of an international nature. This was interpreted as a sign of moderation in AWS's expansion following a period of rapid growth. Kevin Miller, AWS's VP of Data Centers, clarified on LinkedIn that these adjustments are part of routine capacity management, emphasizing that strong demand for generative AI remains intact.
Bank of America is optimistic about Amazon's performance in the first quarter, forecasting net sales to exceed consensus estimates at $155.5 billion. Factors contributing to this positive outlook include a robust retail performance due to demand inflated by tariffs, a strong second-quarter outlook fueled by elevated inventory levels, and better-than-expected AWS results driven by AI demand. Despite anticipating disruptions from the ongoing trade war, BofA maintains a Buy rating with a price target of $225.
Recently, Amazon made headlines regarding reports that it might display the impact of tariffs on product prices on its main website. However, the company denied any plans for such transparency. This potential move was criticized by the White House, which viewed it as a politically charged act. Experts suggest that tariff transparency could help consumers understand the reasons behind rising prices, especially those affecting small businesses that also sell on Amazon.
CFRA predicts that Amazon will exceed first-quarter estimates with revenues of $155.2 billion and operating profits of $18.1 billion, driven by a weak dollar and increased consumption. While they recognize the potential for downside later in the year, CFRA believes that risks are already priced into the stock. They also expect Amazon to gain market share as tariffs disrupt e-commerce.
Conversely, Deutsche Bank expresses caution regarding Amazon's long-term outlook, despite forecasting strong first-quarter sales. They predict that the retail momentum may slow down due to the impact of tariffs and advise investors to closely monitor the evolving landscape of Chinese tariffs and their implications for advertising revenue.
As Amazon grapples with the challenges posed by tariffs and shifting consumer behavior, the performance of AWS remains a critical focal point for investors. With strong demand for cloud services and AI solutions, AWS is expected to continue driving significant revenue growth. However, ongoing trade tensions and their potential impacts on advertising and retail revenue warrant careful consideration as Amazon navigates this complex landscape.
